Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Why Am I Wasting My Time

Has Texas signed a non-disclosure agreement with the Big Ten?

Texas had discussions with the Big Ten earlier this year that lead nowhere. As part of that discussion UT was required to sign a non-disclosure agreement because the Big Ten shared proprietary financial information and projections with the Longhorns.

Both Texas and the Big Ten came to the conclusion that the Big 12’s Grant of Rights could not be circumvented and the discussions ended.

There was a small faction of UT boosters who were pushing for Texas to explore its options because of the publicity Texas A&M was receiving.

Fortunately other boosters understood the real problem wasn’t the Big 12 but a coach who had lost touch with his team and been out recruited by Kevin Sumlin.

Bill Power’s, the Texas president, is currently fighting for his job and UT is searching for a new athletic director. They are not looking to leave the Big 12.

Can Texas get out of the Big 12’s Grant of Rights?

No. Many people want to believe both the ACC’s grant of rights and the Big 12’s have an out. They don’t understand the issue. Members of the Big 12 and ACC have sold the television rights for their schools to their conference. They can’t just leave the conference and do without television revenues. That’s deterrent enough but the conference could/would  have the ability to keep the departing team from playing on television for both home and away games.

You can’t challenge the grant of rights in court either and just walk. It’s non-recoverable – meaning your rights are gone until the contract is up. The default would be the conference maintains the rights during the contract term even during ongoing litigation.

Is Luck the next AD at Texas.

Yes. Luck interviewed for the job over the weekend at the Indy airport. He has not been offered the job yet but he has told Jim Clements it is coming. Expect an announcement in 7-10 days.

Did Luck promise UCF membership in the Big 12?

No. Both Luck and UCF AD Stansbury deny this occurred.  Luck has not been acting on behalf of Texas. He is employed by WVU. 

Is Nick Saban the next coach at Texas?

No. Saban sent his agent to Texas to talk to the Longhorns but he is not interested in leaving Alabama.  I suggest you listen to what Kerry Marbury had to say about Nick and Alabama.

Is the Big 12 going to expand?

No. The Big 12’s standing expansion committee was disbanded last week when they decided to table further expansion talks. Working in consultation with their network partners ESPN and Fox the Big 12 determined that none of the available candidates would justify expansion unless the formula used to select the four teams for the playoffs heavily favors a conference champion determined by a conference championship game over one determined by a round-robin regular season schedule. The Big 12 has been told that will not be a factor.

The Big 12, working with their television partners, vetted the best of the available candidates and found they would add only $60 million to the current television contract.  That’s $420 million short – over a 10 year period – of the revenues necessary to maintain the conference’s current disbursement.

Individual Big 12 members would see a reduction in revenues even with the additional $2 million per school from a conference championship game factored in.

None of the Big 12’s members were interested in taking a pay cut.

Has Fox and ESPN agreed to pay for Big 12 expansion?

No.  The Big 12 does not have a conference network and therefore cannot rely on cable carriage fees to pay the $480 price tag for the conference to add 2 schools. The networks make their money and justify the fees paid to the Big 12, by selling advertisements for Big 12 games. They cannot increase the carriage fees for their cable networks base on Big 12 games and therefore only schools with a reputation and a history of performance in regards to national television ratings justify expansion.

They would lose money on the transaction!!!!!

Claiming Fox and ESPN would gain content shows a lack of understanding of how the tv deal is structured.  Adding 2 schools would only increase the available inventory by 6 games per season for each. Those six games are not worth $420 million.

Fox and ESPN have shareholders and both are required by law to attempt to make a profit. Disney has severely curtailed ESPN's spending and may elect to pay the ACC a nominal fee instead of setting up an ACC network. See where I'm going with this? Neither will throw money away.

The above information was gathered and vetted by 10 indepent sources including sources at WVU,  UCF, The Big 12 conference, ESPN, Fox and members of the local and national media.

What’s the Big Ten going to do?

Wait. The Big Ten turned down FSU and that closed the door for them to take UVA and UNC. Expect the Big Ten’s new TV deal to expire at the same time the Big 12’s grant of rights expires.

The Big Ten will wait.

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