Chat Talking Points

Premise #1: Scheduling Alliance Doesn’t Save ACC

Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby sent waves of panic through the Big 12 when he said his conference was pursuing scheduling alliances with the Pac 12 and ACC. Especially  concerning was his comments that alliances give the Big 12 all the benefits of expansion with none of the risks.

Bowlsby’s comments sound fishy don’t they? Why, just days after admitting for the first time that the Big 12 would talk “philosophically” about expansion, would he throw cold water on the prospects of Big 12 expansion?

I asked a few of my friends at WVU that question today and the answers I received didn’t clear up the issue.

One said: “Bowlsby doesn’t want to be the bad guy; he wants to avoid even the slightest hint of tortious interference on the part of the Big 12. “

He went on to clarify, Bowlsby’s in a good spot in some ways. He can sit back and play nice with the ACC with full knowledge that the  Big 10 has their eyes on as many as 6 ACC schools.

My other friend at WVU is a suspicious sort. He believes there is meaning in Bowlsby’s comments about benefiting from an alliance with the ACC without taking on the risk of expansion. He believes it’s a scheme by Deloss Dodd to derail Big 12 expansion.

I must point out here that my primary contact at WVU, let’s call him “Mr. Big” has yet to get back to me on this subject.

I also traded emails with several of my contacts in the media and they agreed talk of an ACC – Big 12 Alliance is much to do about nothing.

They also agreed it isn’t an informal attempt to merge the Big 12 and ACC to protect each conference against an attack from the Big 10.

An alliance doesn’t put additional money in the pockets of either conference since both of their T1 & T2 rights are tied up in long-term contracts. 

Such a scheduling alliance has zero effect on the bottom line.

And for ACC fans they annoying question persists: Why did Swofford reach out to Bowlsby? Most I spoke to yesterday about the move viewed it as an act of desperation by the ACC. 

Premise #2: The Big 10 Doesn’t Care

The Big 10 doesn’t care what alliances the ACC forms. They have their sights on as many as 6 ACC schools and recent statements are a clear message that Jim Delany intends to deliver the “kill shot” to the ACC.

Ohio State President, and former President of WVU, E. Gordon Gee told OSU’s athletic council last month that:

"there has been ongoing discussion" about expansion and "believes there is movement towards three or four super conferences that are made up of 16-20 teams."

Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon told ESPN that:

"Based on the last three years I've been in this business, you’d be crazy not to think about it. But it's hard to model anything because you don’t know what to model. The minute you get yourself convinced that you're going to go from 14 to 16, for all you know you’re going to 18, and a lot of people think the ultimate landing place is 20. Who knows? There’s too many variables out there to predict it."

You don’t have to read between the lines to know the only major conference that’s not protected by a Grant-of-Rights (excluding the SEC) is the ACC.

The ACC is a conference with internal fractures running across the football – basketball and city – country divides that are compounded by low earnings and what’s perceived as unequal treatment and preference given to UNC and Duke.

The conference also has valuable football commodities that are harmed by the ACC’s focus on basketball and that put it (the ACC) squarely in the crosshairs of the Big 10.

UVA, GT, UNC, FSU, Boston College and even Duke have all had discussions with the Big 10 and Delany has focused his attention on UVA, GT, UNC, BC and FSU.

According to my sources in the Big 10 the AAU status is still a big deal as federal research money is one of the primary factors in the Big 10 appealing to ACC schools, but Jim Delany believes a school, given the proper resources, mentorship and motivation can raise itself up to AAU standards and he is willing to consider offering schools without AAU status who have a viable plan to achieve the designation in the near future.

Premise #3: The Big 12 Must Expand

The Big 12 has the smallest media footprint of all the major conferences. It also delivered weak ratings for Fox on its primetime matchups for last season. The two are related. A small media footprint translates into weak ratings.

Weak ratings are bad for the Big 12 because it depends on its T1 and T2 nationally televised games for the bulk of the TV revenue it disburses to its members.

It’s not all bad for the Big 12 though.

It has a Grant-or-Rights that protects the future of the conference for at least 12 years and by 2014 Big 12 schools should see their revenues around $40 million per year. It has an alliance with the SEC to match champions in the Sugar Bowl and it has great football.

But that’s today. What about in 12 years? Weak ratings are only part of the problem for the Big 12. What if the conference has a bad run in the years leading up to contract renewal?

I agree its unlikely but with only 10 members the Big 12 is susceptible to a down-cycle that could effect the new TV contract in 2025.

The answer is expansion. Especially expanding into the southeast and vast population centers of Florida, South Carolina, Virginia and North Carolina.

Most in the Big 12 understand the challenges and believe expansion is the key to the long-term survival of the Big 12.

Some do not recognize the danger.

However, nobody in the Big 12 wants to expand if the money isn’t there.  Based on the Big 12’s projections of what the Big 10 and SEC may do the conference understands that Florida is the key to making expansion economically viable.

The Big 12 must acquire FSU or Miami – preferably both to make expansion feasible.

After FSU and Miami the value is in GT (headed to the Big 10), NC State (A candidate for the SEC), Clemson and Virginia Tech (Candidate for the SEC).

After those 5 the value declines sharply. Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Syracuse are roughly valued at the same level.

Expansion west-ward is not an option based on the need to expand the electronic footprint although San Diego State would add TV sets and allow the Big 12 to balance out the West – East divisions if the Big 10 takes more than 2-4 ACC schools.

The big prize for the Big 12 is FSU. FSU has told the Big 12 it would join the conference if the ACC is gutted by defections, they don’t receive an offer from either the Big 10 or SEC, and they have regional partners.

Miami, has apparently told the Big 12 it will come. The Hurricanes don’t have much choice. They have no shot at the Big 10 or the SEC and are in danger of being left out if they don’t grab the Big 12’s offer while its on the table.

Clemson has told the Big 12 the same things as FSU, yes if…

But after those 3 the Big 12 must sit back and wait to see who is available.

Or they can get proactive.

My sources at WVU tell me the Big 12 will discuss inviting 4-6 ACC schools when they meet late next week.

The idea is they can offer these ACC schools in block and give them a chance to maintain the rivalries they established as ACC members.

Big 12 fans should get too excited though. Nobody in the ACC is going to jump before its clear they must move or be left behind.

That means the Big 12 is at the mercy of the Big 10 and SEC.

We can be almost certain that the Big 12 will not officially invite anyone yet. They won't extend invitations until they know the invitations will be accepted and until UVA moves nobody in the ACC, except for Miami, will accept. 

Premise #4: Texas Is Against Expansion

Remember when I said some in the Big 12 don’t see the danger in not expanding? It’s very likely that Deloss Dodds will have retired before the next time the Big 12 negotiates a television contract.

Dodds is secure in knowing that Texas has a home in the Pac 12 should something happen to the Big 12.  He’s more concerned about the Longhorns losing influence in the conference or having to face a tougher schedule and a conference championship game than he is the survival of the Big 12. 

I encourage all Long Horn fans to contact UT’s board and president and apply as much pressure as possible on Texas to advocate Big 12 expansion instead of blocking it.

Maybe all Big 12 fans should do the same with their schools too.

Premise #5:  UVA and GT are Big 10 Bound Why the Delay?

Last week I wrote that UVA would announce their decision to move to the Big 10. I was wrong but my Big 10 source wasn’t wrong.

What my friends in the Big 10 actually told me was that UVA had completed an “execution plan” detailing how they would withdraw from the ACC and begin competing in the Big 10.

The source told me that based on the timelines of Maryland and Rutgers, who also

Submitted “execution plans” that UVA should be days away from announcing.

He even clarified that Maryland and Rutgers announced two days after Delany accepted the “execution plan”.

I made the assumption that UVA would also announce days after Delany accepted their plan.

I failed to take into consideration what numerous reporters, media contacts and my friends at WVU were telling me.

UVA and GT will wait on the UMD – ACC lawsuit to announce.

It’s not the exit fee that’s delaying the announcement. Both UVA and GT will receive similar deals with the Big 10 that front loads revenues and provides help with whatever the exit fee turns out to be. 

The problem is that the ACC is withholding disbursements to Maryland until the full $52 exit fee is paid.

Keep in mind Maryland hasn’t even formerly withdrawn from the ACC. They have until August 1, 2013 to give official notice.

Neither UVA or GT can afford to go without TV revenues from the ACC. They’ll raise money from boosters and use the help of the Big 10 to pay whatever fee the courts determine is fair, but they must wait until a Maryland judge rules on the Terp’s request for relief from the ACC’s withholding of funds.

Addendum:  One of my Big 10 sources tells me that only UVA and Boston College are prepared to accept the Big 10's offer right now. What is Georgia Tech waiting for?

Premise #5:  Future Homes of ACC Members

Based on my conversations with many people with knowledge of what’s going on here’s where I think ACC teams will end up.

Boston College – Big 10 (1)

Clemson – Big 12 (1)

Duke – Big 10 (2)

FSU – Big 10 or Big 12. (2)

Georgia Tech – Big 10 (3)

Louisville – Big 12 (3)

Miami – Big 12 (4)

Pitt – Big 12 (5)

UNC –  Big 10 (4)

NC St – SEC 12 (1)

UVA – Big 10 (5)

Virginia Tech  - SEC (2)

Cincinnati – Big 12 (6)

Big 10 – 20 with ND as #20.

SEC with 16.

Big 12 with 16. 

New Years Expansion Update

Everybody wants to know what’s new in the conference realignment but I’m still occupied with WVU’s bowl loss.

I'm not sure you know much those of you outside of WVU know about the relationship the Mountaineers have with the state. The best way I can describe how important Mountaineer football is to West Virginia is with the Sago Mine Disaster. 12 miners died on January 2nd, 2006. That happened to be the same night WVU was playing Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

The miners knew they were going to die. Their oxygen had run out and there was little hope rescuers could reach them in time. All 13 miners decided to write farewell notes to their families. In those notes they said goodbye and curiously  they expressed their love of the Mountaineers and their regret they would never know the outcome of the Sugar Bowl.

That's how important football is to our state. So important that 12 men, who knew they were dying, took the time in the last moments of their lives to write of their love of the Mountaineers as they said goodbye to their families.

We in West Virginia are often misunderstood. We are often maligned, put down, judged as not good enough or just plain ignored.

You’ve heard it all before I’m sure, but hearing it again from me doesn’t make it less true.

We live and breathe Mountaineer football and in their success on the field we find pride.

West Virginia is a small state with a small population. We see our best and brightest leave the hills and valleys to find work in SEC and ACC territory.

The leave West Virginia but they never cease to be West Virginians. Often these displaced Mountaineers pass along their love of WVU to their families - some of whom may never step foot in West Virginia.

It's hard for an outsider to understand the glue that binds all West Virginians together. It's almost impossible to describe the pride we feel when the Mountaineers rush onto the gridiron and the first bars of "Country Roads" begin to play.

Losing at West Virginia is simply not acceptable. Losing in a manner that embarrasses the hard working people of West Virginia is not acceptable.

The loss against Syracuse on Saturday was unacceptable. The way WVU lost to Syracuse was intolerable. We can blame the weather and the officials, and although both were factors, we have to accept the fact WVU was never as talented as we believed.

Mountaineers play tough, physical football. We are not dominated physically. We are mentally tough, physically brutal and we never, ever, give up.  Far to often the young men that wore the old gold and blue for West Virginia did not earn the right to wear the uniform.

They were not ready to play Texas Tech. They failed to rise to the challenge of Kansas State and the folded in the adversity they found at Oklahoma State.

Each and ever test the Mountaineers faced they failed.

What happened?

Who is to blame? Certainly Dana Holgorsen can’t escape blame. Holgorsen’s coaching style is perhaps better suited for the professional game. He was slow to assume the mantle of leadership and authority and far to often this year he failed to adjust his coaching style to his audience.

But Holgorsen did adjust. He “got it” and stopped trying to be both a coach and a friend to the players. He made it clear that if you didn’t practice hard you wouldn’t play and he laid down to the law to those not willing to invest time and energy into preparing for games.

Holgorsen also made the touch decisions to demote Joe Deforrest and fire Deron Robert and they were made without pressure from Oliver Luck.

Yet Holgorsen’s growing pains can’t explain the lackluster play we’ve seen from the Mountaineers.

The edge, the chip that West Virginia teams of the past always played with on their shoulders was gone, and without it WVU was less than pedestrian.

Perhaps the answer has more to do with the roster Holgorsen inherited than his growing pains as a head coach or the failings of his staff.

WVU had NFL caliber talent at high profile spots but lacked the quality and depth in key areas.

Physical domination begins with line play and both WVU’s offensive and defensive lines failed to perform to Mountaineer standards.

The offensive line made key mistakes at critical times all year and with the season in the books we can make a final judgment--they were just average on their best days and poor when it counted most.

Next year the Mountaineers lose 3 starters from the line and normally losing so many would be a cause for concern but not in this case as the departing seniors were marginal at best.

There is talent on the roster to step into the open spots and improve the level of play. Marquis Lucas, Freshman Tyler Orlosky, Adam Pankey, Brandon Jackson and JuCo transfer Mark Glowinski are all highly regarded and have a higher ceiling than those they will replace.

The line returns the behemoth Quinton Spain and Pat Eger, Curtis Feight and Nick Kindler but only Spain can be considered a returning starter and he must elevate his level of play and reduce the number of mistakes to retain his job.

The offensive line is least of my worries heading into 2013. The talent  is there and by the time the 2013 season kicks off they will benefit from another offseason s in the strength room and another year of conditioning.

On the defensive side of the ball the Mountaineers lose only Jorge Wright. Those returning include the talented Will Clarke and Shaq Rowell and host of promising freshman who were denied a redshirt year to grow bigger and stronger by the lack of depth on the roster.

Christian Brown, Kyle Rose and Imarjaye Albury all have talent. What they lacked this year was the strength and experience to dominate. Just like the young pups on the offensive line they will have a full offseason of strength and conditioning needed to reach their full potential before the 2013 season kicks off.

Joining the talented young linemen will be 2013 recruit De’Asian Richardson who has the talent but maybe lacks the bulk to contribute in his freshman year.

We all have to remember that both offensive and defensive linemen very rarely contribute as freshman. They lack the size and strength needed to play major college football and need the red shirt season to season.

Both lines will benefit from the increased numbers and competition roster depth provides. Far to often the recent past WVU’s linemen were safe in the knowledge that no matter what they did in practice they would play because there was no one to take their spot.

My two primary concerns for the 2013 season are linebacker and wide receiver. The WR corp is decimated by gradation and WVU has only Cody Clay and Connor Arlia returning as receivers with a host of unproven freshman and recruits.

Again the talent seems to be on the roster but the question is who will step up and become the next Tavon Austin or Stedman Bailey. My bet is that KJ Meyers and Devonte Robinson quickly establish themselves as reliable receivers and that Dustin Garrison is moved to the slot.

2013  JC recruit Kevin White  is also a safe bet to contribute once he gets settled in and learns Dana’s offense. White is known more for his soft hands and his ability to make the catch in heavy traffic and add yards after the catch.

The linebacker position is troublesome for WVU and you can see that in the 7 linebacker recruits signed for the 2013 class by WVU. Of those 7 only JC transfer D’Vante Henry and 2013 commit Darrien Howard seem capable of stepping in right away and playing.

Freshman Isaiah Bruce and Junior Doug Rigg return at linebacker and Bruce has the talent to blossom into a dominate force. Bruce will benefit from a full offseason just like the rest of the freshman forced into playing significant time.

We can expect WVU to do whatever it takes to land more JC talent at linebacker in the hopes of providing needed depth and experience.

The next troublesome spot is Quarterback. I’m not as worried about the QB spot because Dana Holgorsen’s proven track record of developing QBs and the presence of Ford Childress.

Childress has the arm and mechanics to make all the throws and make them with velocity and accuracy. He has the mentality of a gunslinger and isn’t afraid to put the ball into a tight spot and let his receiver make the play but he doesn’t force many throws. He has the size and smarts to lead WVU. What he lacks is experience.

If Childress doesn’t win the job as expected WVU is in trouble.

Fortunately for both Holgorsen and Childress WVU’s running backs should be able to carry the offense while Childress matures.

Andrew Buie and Dustin Garrison both return in 2013 and both will receive significant playing time. Buie impressed in WVU’s backfield  but succumbed to fatigue as the season wore on his carries pilled up. Garrison may split time between RB and the slot as his size and speed are better suited for the slot than the pounding a RB endures.

Joining Buie and Garrsion in the Mountaineer backfield will be JC transfer Dreamius Smith. Smith has the size  and power that both Buie and Garrison lack and but he’s much faster than Shawne Alston. He’s not much of threat to hit the home run but he can eat up clock and yards like a smaller, faster Jerome Bettis.

My bet is that Smith’s combination of power and speed wins him the starting job with Buie getting his share of carries as a change-up.

With improved offensive line play the duo of Smith and Buie are safe bets to the feature weapons in retooled – run first – WVU offense.

WVU’s glaring weakness in 2013 was pass defense but again the youth and inexperience of 2012 should mature into a strength in 2013.

The undisputed star of WVU’s defense was freshman safety Karl “The Marxsman” Joseph. Joseph matured as the season as the season progressed and quickly became a an all-around defender and not just a big hitter.

Freshman cornerbacks Ishmael Banks, Nana Kyermeh and Terrell Chestnut all have the talent to mature into top-level defenders and when combined with Darwin Cook this unit is primed for a major improvement in 2013 especially if a top-level defensive backs coach is hired.

Is there reason to hope for the 2013 season or should we dread it?

One reason to hope is that Holgorsen is bringing in a higher level of talent overall than any Mountaineer staff before him. He needs the time to fill in the holes left by several recruiting classes that just didn’t deliver the numbers or talent WVU needs in the Big 12.

One reason for us to dread the 2013 season is the loss of Geno Smith, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. You can’t just replace talent on the level of those three.

Holgorsen has shown the ability to adapt his scheme to his talent and next year, at least until Childress and the new receivers prove themselves, we can expect to see a totally different WVU offense that relies on the run to control the ball and protect the young QB.

As hard as it is to believe the strength of next year’s team maybe the defense and especially the pass defense.

If WVU can add one or two quality linebackers who can contribute early and a way to pressure the QB we could see one of the better defensive units in the Big 12.

One that may just have to carry WVU to bowl eligibility.

Conference Realignment

Nothing has changed… the waiting game continues.

I have been able to confirm via several sources that Georgia Tech and UVA have been in detailed and prolonged discussions with the Big 10.

One media source close to Georgia Tech with direct knowledge of the Yellow-jackets negotiations with the Big 10 conference believes that Georgia Tech will leave the ACC. The source, who has advised Georgia Tech on the value of Big 10 membership as compared to continued membership in the ACC, says that Tech president G.P. "Bud" Peterson understands the opportunities for increased television revenues and the potential partnerships with renowned engineering schools Illinois and Purdue outweigh the benefits of remaining in the ACC even with the ACC’s partnership with Notre Dame and the planned digital partnership with ESPN factored into the equation.

It’s clear from talking to media sources that Georgia Tech has reached the same conclusion that Maryland came to after crunching the numbers – the ACC can’t match the revenue projections of the Big 10.

My understanding, from talking to several people around the SEC and ACC, is that UVA is #16. I’ve had my doubts as sources can be wrong.  Dr. Sullivan was basically fired by UVA's board this past summer and then brought back.

Dr. Sullivan's problems with the board seemed to originate from her intentions to buck tradition at UVA and modernize the university in terms of employment and tenure. So her willingness to cast aside tradition for the sake of economics certainly fits the profile of someone who would be willing to move her school from the ACC to the Big 10.

Right now I can only relay on what my sources tell me and they all say the same thing: Georgia Tech and UVA will be in the Big 10.

We know from UMD's valuation of the ACC that membership in the Big 10 (or any of the big 4)  more lucrative despite the addition of Notre Dame as a partial member.

Depending on who you believe the ACC either nets $15 million or $17 million annually. Add in an additional $2 million for Notre Dame and $2 million for the Orange Bowl and the total is either $19 or $21 million.

$21 million is an interesting figure since it's just short of the what the Big 12 is reportedly paying each of its members and that's maybe the genesis of Jack Swarbrick's comments about ACC revenues being nearly equal to that of the Big 12.

However, according to WVU, the Big 12 makes about $25 million from its television contract with Fox & ESPN.

The reason the number is different than what was bandied about in the media is that the contract has incentives built in for national TV appearances on the T1 or T2 level. The Big 12's TV deal with Fox and NBC almost guarantees that Big 12 schools make the $25 million rather than the $21 million. Add in $4 million and the Big 12 is at $29 million.

Here's where the mystery comes in… recently Dennis Dodd of CBS sports wrote a story that claimed the Big 12 would feature an annual payout of $31 million per team beginning in 2014 and if we take what we know we are two million short at our arrived at $29 million.

The difference could be a Big 12 championship game. The public estimates of seen have a Big 12 championship game at $1.5 to $2 million per school. Add the $2 million and the Big 12 is at $31 million per annum.

(By the way my source at WVU tells me the Big 12 must have a championship game by 2014 if no other reason than the formula for selecting playoff teams will severely hurt the Big 12 without one.)

If we give the ACC the benefit of the doubt and accept $21 million as their per annum there is still a $10 million dollar gap between the ACC and Big 12.

$10 million per year is $150 million over the 15 year ACC contract with ESPN. Is $150 million large enough to entice schools like FSU to leave the ACC for the Big 12?

Oddly enough I have more information about GT and UVA than I do FSU and Clemson.

My friend at WVU continues to say that the Big 12 has an agreement in place with FSU to be the Big 12's 11th member with Miami or Clemson as #12.

My sources at Ohio State, Minnesota, and UMD  (they each work in their respective athletic departments) say that FSU may have an agreement with the Big 10.

I'm certain that FSU doesn't meet the Big 10's academic model but I'm also certain the academic model concept may be outdated with the direction college football is moving.

Without word from Clemson all I can is guess on what the Tigers plan to do.

I am hearing from Clemson fans and for the most part they seemed concerned and maybe they should be.

The Big 12 seems to prefer the combination of FSU and Miami over FSU and Clemson. I’m not sure this is due to the Big 12 cooling on Clemson or Clemson going all in for the SEC.

If Clemson is going all in for the SEC it’s a mistake. According to the people I speak to in the SEC neither FSU or Clemson are being considered.

Clemson seems to think they have enough political clout in South Carolina to force SC to champion their bid for the SEC but I’m told such a ploy will not work because it would produce a duplication of markets and reduce revenues.

I heard a rumor yesterday that ESPN was pleading with the Big 12 to take UCONN. I can understand ESPN’s desire to have a safe landing spot for UCONN considering ESPN’s location but UCONN is much better fit for the ACC.

I haven’t had the opportunity to check with by WVU and Big 12 contacts so this is just my opinion but I can’t see UCONN having any shot at the Big 12.

ESPN playing hardball this summer when the Big 12 had FSU and Clemson on the hook and I don't see how they can go back to the Big 12 after saying they wouldn't add money to the TV contract for FSU and Clemson and ask them to take UCONN.

I can't see WVU supporting UCONN as a Big 12 member. Over at  Cincinnati one of our own is the AD  -- Whitt Babcock. Whitt is still close to WVU and the Mountaineers are pushing for Cincy in the Big 12 should the Big 12 expand to 16.

Expansion is all about money and the networks and conferences leave nothing to chance. The Big 12 paid an outside consultant to conduct valuations on ACC and Big East schools. Aside from WVU - which has a very high Q score backed up by national TV ratings and merchandise sales (WVU is #15) - nary a Big East school justified their addition in terms of television value.

The Big 12 wanted an 18% increase for adding FSU and Clemson (not sure how accurate that number is since I haven't done the math) and ESPN balked.

The Big 12 has different needs than the Big 10 or SEC. They need attractive inventory for Fox and ESPN -- marquee match-ups the networks can put in primetime and haul in solid overnight ratings.

FSU certainly adds that brand name that's attractive to the networks and viewers. I'm not so sure about Clemson. Clemson's designated market area (DMA) is relatively small and from what people tell me their recruiting area isn't of the caliber of Florida, Georgia, and Texas.

According to my sources a few weeks ago WVU and Kansas State were able to convince Oklahoma the Big 12 needed to go hard after FSU and Clemson.

Members who had been resistant to expansion (namely Kansas & Iowa State) read the reports about FSU reaching out to the Big 10 and voted to expand by inviting FSU and Miami (with the intention of landing Clemson later) over the objections of Texas and DeLoss Dodds.

Again my source at WVU tells me that FSU is #11 but Miami hasn't made up their mind and both want to wait until it's clear they have no other choice.

I realize that some of this sounds contradicting and confusing. It’s not clear if the Big 12 has invited FSU or Clemson or FSU and Miami. It’s possible the Big 12 will skip 12 and hit 14 and has already invited FSU, Miami, Clemson and one other.

The problem is as my sources grow the information begins to conflict and contradict.

It could be just the ever-changing nature of realignment. One day its FSU and Clemson and the next its FSU and Miami.

We have to accept that until someone is standing behind a podium and announcing a move that anything could happen.

Until then consider everything I write to be just me passing on rumors from people who should know what’s happening.

The only thing I’m 100% confident about is the ACC’s days are numbered and only Jim Delany knows when their clock strikes midnight.

Happy New year!

Duke's David Cuttcliffe Overrated

Last night I decided to enjoy the Bowl Season by tweeting during the Cincy-Duke bowl game. Since I hate Duke (and I really hate Duke) my natural inclination was to talk a little smack against Duke and the ACC.

 I didn't go overboard - I didn't use profanity or vulgarisms. What I did was point out that Duke was undeserving of a bowl bid and that David Cuttcliffe, Duke's head football coach, was overrated and in reality not a very good coach. 

The blowback from the Duke and ACC was almost immediate and it was, for the most part, profane, vulgar and often downright stupid. 

Duke's fans showed a fundamental gap in their football knowledge. One Duke fan, who apparently has no idea that WVU has won more BCS bowl games than the entire (ACC), sent me a hateful little message asking what would happen if WVU played Clemson. 

He did not seem to know that WVU played Clemson in the Orange Bowl last year and won 70-33.   

What happened to sports being fun? What happened to lively repartee and the back-and-forth smack of fan bases? I try to be funny and factual. Duke fans, and ACC fans in general, responded with profanity. 

No once cared to make a factual argument or attempted to have fun with it.

They went straight to the "motherf$%#$s" and tired jokes about West Virginia. 

No one wanted to debate Cuttcliffe's anointment as a great coach. No one seemed to care he has never had a winning record at Duke and actually regressed in 2010 and 2011. Five years at Duke and he's produced 9 conference wins and a 21-40 record. 

Good coaches turn around programs in 3 or 4 years and sometimes less. David Cuttcliffe is not a good coach.  Charlie Strong stepped in at Louisville, took over for Steve Kragthrope, and turned around Louisville in only 2 years. Dana Holgorsen seems to have regressed WVU this year but the WVU program he inherited from Bill Stewart was in bad shape ( numbers wise  recruits) and lacked depth at nearly every position. He's turning around the culture of the WVU program. 

What has Cutcliffe done? He hasn't won at Duke. He hasn't produced a single winning season at Duke. Cuttcliffe's earth-shattering 6 win season that won him the ACC coach of the year award is a mirage.  

Cuttcliffe took a bad Duke team and beat Florida International (3-9), North Carolina Central (6-5), and Memphis (4-8). He won a total of 3 ACC games against Wake (5-7 - 3-5 ACC), UVA (4-8 - 2-7 ACC) and UNC (8-5 - 5-3 ACC). 

Duke had only 2 wins against schools with winning records and 1 of those was against MEAC member NC Central. Duke's only claim to be bowl worthy was a win over UNC and if that's the brightest spot on your football resume you deserve to stay at home for the bowl season.

Bill Stewart went 28-12 in his 3 seasons as head coach at WVU with wins in the Fiesta and Car Care bowls. He was fired. 

David Cutcliffe is 21-40 at Duke. He followed up his 5-7 2009 campaign by going 3-9 in both 2010 and 2011 and engineered a 6 win season by adding Memphis, NC Central and Florida International to the schedule and people proclaim him a great coach. 

Just answer me this one question: would Cutcliffe be considered a great coach anywhere but Duke?

Not a single ACC apologist or Duke fan even cared to ask honest questions about Cuttcliffe's coaching resume. Instead they went on the attack and showed their ignorance and hostility towards anyone not willing to worship at the alter of a 6-7 coach with a career record of 65-69. 

Sports are supposed to be fun. Banter and back-and-forth are supposed to be fun and far too many of us have lost perspective and forgotten how to be civil. 

Duke and the ACC showed us exactly why the ACC is doomed last night. A football coach at a basketball school goes 6-7 and wins coach of the year over Jimbo Fisher, Dabo Swinney, Paul Johnson and Al Golden. 

ACC Revenue Numbers Don't Lie

Conference realignment burnout – are we there yet?

We may not be but it's a safe bet that FSU president Eric Barron is completely feed up with conference realignment.

Yesterday the ACC issued a statement, signed by the leaders of every ACC school, vouching for their love of the conference and assuring (each other) that they had not sought membership elsewhere.

The "pledge of allegiance" was Eric Barron's idea. I'm not one of Mr. Barron's confidants, he didn't consult me or ask my opinion, but it's clear to me that FSU has decided that if they can't be in the SEC then the best place for them is to stay at home in the ACC.

Barron is gambling that FSU's loyalty can keep the ACC whole. He must be so enamored with the ACC and FSU's subordinate relationship to UNC and Duke that he is willing to gamble that FSU's renewed commitment to the ACC will keep the Big 10 and SEC at bay.

Barron's gambit has an outside chance of succeeding. FSU has the brand name and history to land on its feet no matter what happens to the ACC. He knows the rest of the ACC would prefer for the conference to remain viable.

FSU can afford the risk, Barron has a Big 12 invitation in his pocket and he can wager FSU's football future because of it. FSU will not accept the Big 12 invitation until Barron is certain he has no other options and he is determined that FSU will not be the school that begins the mass exodus from the ACC.

Others in the ACC face uncertain times going forward. UNC and UVA can rest easy and make the same gamble as FSU, But Georgia Tech , Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami and NC State are concerned.

Do they gamble on the ACC finding additional revenues or do the leave for more money and more football centric conferences.

Do they ride on the coattails of FSU and hope for increased revenues or do they leave for greener pastures when they have the chance.

A look at ACC revenues gives us insight into a major factor in their decision to stay or go.

Each year the U.S. Department of Education's Office of Postsecondary Education requires schools to report their revenues and the data isn't good for the ACC. A quick look at those numbers tells us that unless the ACC can quickly raise revenues the danger of more economic based defections is a real possibility.

School	Total Athletic Revenue
Florida State	$81.4 million
Virginia	$81.3 million
North Carolina	$78.8 million
Duke	$78.6 million
Clemson	$67.0 million
Boston College	$66.2 million
N.C. State	$65.5 million
Virginia Tech	$64.8 million
Maryland	$62.6 million
Miami	$62.1 million
Georgia Tech	$60.3 million
Wake Forest	$48.8 million

Pay attention to the bottom half of that list and you will understand why Clemson, Boston College, NC State, Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech are all looking at other conferences and weighing  the pain of leaving the ACC against the sustainable raise they stand to gain.

Those numbers – and the real dollars they represent – are the reason why Barron's gambit will fail. Barron has a backup plan. He has a exit strategy. Boston College, Clemson and Miami face the very real possibility the may get left behind if they don't act soon.

As for the ACC's statement of solidarity – if FSU, or any other ACC school, were seriously committed to the ACC they would be signing a grant-of-rights instead of a pledge of allegiance.

I have confirmed that at least two ACC schools have offers from the Big 10. One of those schools is Georgia Tech and the other one is waiting on Georgia Tech's decision.

That's all for now.

In Response to Mr. Barron

Florida State University President Eric Barron has apparently addressed growing rumors of ACC instability by specifically referring to my "nom de plume" (dudeofWV) as an internet rumor-monger spreading "incorrect" information.

I began writing about conference realignment last January when I postulated the growing concern of Florida State and Clemson over the revenue gap between the ACC and the SEC would lead them to explore options with other conferences.

It was shortly after WVU and Clemson played in the Orange Bowl that I learned substantial discussions were ongoing between the Big 12 and FSU and Clemson.

I am guilty of many things as I have tried to cover expansion. I have sometimes jumped to conclusions and let my enthusiasm get the better of me. However I have always been careful to only write what I was certain was true and I learned the hard way to double-check my facts.

I began posting a blog about WVU and WVU's chances at being invited to the SEC to defend WVU against those who had incorrect assumptions about WVU and West Virginia. My experiences writing about the SEC taught me a valuable lesson – double and triple check facts.

Contacts within a major university like WVU know the power of social media. They know they can release information via social media that a traditional news outlet, like the Charleston Gazette, could never print. Traditional journalism is about what "has happened" not what "could happen" and social media nicely fills that gap.

A conference like the Big 12 or a university like FSU could use social media to plant a rumor to gauge fan support for a conference switch or coaching change – the opportunity to shape opinion is there and universities are becoming more adept at using it.

The danger to bloggers is that information is shared for a reason and that reason always serves the best interest of the university and may or may not be true. I learned that when I was told WVU had submitted paperwork for the SEC. My contact at WVU did not tell me that WVU had only submitted financial information and lead me to believe that WVU had submitted an application for membership.

I learned my lesson well and when I began writing about FSU and Clemson I was very careful about what I did (and did not) write. I took great pains to verify information and reached out to several media members who confirmed the majority of what I had learned. These helpful individuals had no connection to WV or WVU.

At every step in the process I freely shared whatever information I had and I was fortunate enough to have others share their information with me. Every piece of the puzzle was verified and although some details remain murky, like the specifics of the ACC contract, I was able to independently verify each and every one of the items I've written about.

I stand by my assertion that both FSU and Clemson had significant talks with the Big 12 and that both were willing to leave the ACC based on facts collaborated by my media contacts, independent of WVU, who covered FSU, Clemson and the SEC.

Eric Barron can deflect all he wants and try to reassure his boosters but the fact remains the ACC has problems that that threaten their stability.

Eric Barron can't change the fact that the ACC is the lowest paid of the major football conferences. He can't change the fact the ACC's reputation harms Florida State chances of reaching the playoffs in 2014. Barron can't change the fact that the Big 10, SEC and Big 12 covet ACC members and even the $50 million exit fee isn't enough to keep the conference whole.

More importantly Eric Barron can't change the fact that the new BCS playoff system begins in 2013 and the Big 4 are determined that the ACC isn't around to receive their share.

As for Eric Barron calling me out by name I have a few simple questions for him:

1. Have you or anyone acting on FSU's behalf spoken to the Big 10, Big 12 or SEC about conference membership?
2. Have you or any agent of FSU retained outside representation to review or prepare financial documents related to Big 10, Big 12 or SEC membership?
3. Have you or anyone representing FSU spoken to the Big 12 conference in the past 14 days.
4. Have you spoken with senior leadership at Boston College, Clemson, UVA, Virginia Tech Georgia Tech about their plans in regards to ACC membership.

Barron admitted he has been talking to other university presidents and you can bet those presidents are in the Big 10, SEC and Big 12. So until the ACC either releases details of its TV contract or signs a grant-of-rights it would be foolish not to think Eric Barron isn't fulfilling his fiduciary responsibility to explore FSU's options as the Big 10 plans its next move.

As for the criticism… I have done all I can do. I have shared what I know, given up my non de plume and used my real name. I don't own a website, I don't charge for information, I don't benefit from anyway from hits to any website. I'm on record with my opinion that greed is ruining college football and that conference realignment is bad for the game we all love.

And I was warned many, many times not to write about expansion.

ACC Goes Boom

Just a quick expansion update from the road and readers need to keep in mind there are many balls still in the air that could land in many different spots.

 So don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Don’t assume anything and more important.ly remember that this blog and any others you read for entertainment purposes only.

 All indications are that UVA is still headed to the Big 10 along with Georgia Tech and the announcement could come as soon as next Monday.

 UNC’s reaction would be to accept an invitation from the SEC and join Virginia Tech as Nick Saban’s stepstool.

 The Big 12 is very close to an agreement with FSU and Miami that is contingent upon Georgia Tech leaving the ACC. The contingency isn’t formal it’s just that if Georgia Tech doesn’t leave neither are FSU and Miami.

 Clemson and North Carolina State are have Big 12 invitations and will wait and see where the balls land and hope they land in the SEC. That’s not going to happen so pencil them both in for the Big 12. 

Now here’s where it gets interesting. My friend over @blatanthomerism posed an interesting question: What if the Big 12 allowed Kansas to leave the Big 12 for the Big 10? (Note: There is ZERO chance of this happening - it's just an interesting thought - Both Allen and I want KU to stay in the Big 12)

 That only makes sense if the Big 12 adds one more, bringing the total to five, ACC schools and allows better east-west divisional alignment in the Big 12.  If the Big 12 were to go to 16 they could add BYU in the West  and someone like Louisville in the East. That’s just a theory right now but one that I like.  Consider this:

West	East
Baylor BYU Oklahoma Oklahoma State TCU Texas Texas Tech Kansas State or Kansas	Clemson FSU Iowa State Louisville Miami NC State Kansas State or Pitt WVU

I’m not sure how likely a 16 member Big 12 is but I am sure that 12 could happen as soon as next week with 13 and 14 quickly thereafter.  The 16 member Big 12 could happen with Kansas too – just leave out Pitt and place KSU in the East and KU in the West.

If Kansas would leave the Big 12 it would be with the blessing of the Big 12 and a friendly separation that benefits both the Big 12 and Big 10. Remember… no one at WVU has expressed anything about KU. That’s just me playing “what if”.

 Before I go I want to address the situation with Clemson. Clemson has a Big 12 offer but is willing to wait and see if an SEC offer comes their way. It is very unlikely the SEC invites the Tigers simply because the SEC doesn’t want to duplicate markets and will certainly not duplicate a small market like the one Clemson offers. Is Clemson deserving of an SEC invitation? Yes, and so is FSU but neither provide what the SEC needs right now offers – SEC expansion is about TV sets not the quality of football.

Clemson feels like they have an outside shot at the SEC and they are secure in taking that risk because they have an offer from the Big 12 in their pocket. The Big 10 may not stop at 16. They could add UVA and GT and then add KU and BC. 

They could lock down the northeast, have their presence in the south with Georgia Tech and be content in the knowledge the SEC and Big 12 have no desire to go beyond 16. Right now its all fun to think about but just supposition. What I am fairly certain happens very soon is this:

• UVA & GT to the Big 10
• UNC & VPI to the SEC
• FSU and Miami to the Big 12.

We can expect Clemson’s Board to decide to accept the Big 12 invitation shortly after FSU and Miami announce for the Big 12 and NC State will do the same hopefully after UNC moves on to the SEC.

 But nothing happens this weekend. Enjoy college football and I would encourage all Mountaineer fans to turn up for senior day and see out Geno Smith, Tavon Austin and the rest of the senior Mountaineers as they play their last home game.

Is Jimbo Fisher Leaving FSU?

This is not about expansion; it’s not about Florida State actively seeking Big 12 membership or the drama within the Big 12 when they realized they could actually add FSU.

This is about the fallout coming from FSU’s internal battle between Jimbo Fisher and his supporters on the Board of Trustees and FSU President Eric Baron and the growing possibility that the head coach of one of the most storied programs in college football could leave that program for one struggling in the SEC.

It sounds crazy doesn’t it?

Why would Jimbo want to leave FSU? He has many reasons to stay and weather the storm including the home field advantage in recruiting the Seminoles enjoy in Florida.  Jimbo has the support of FSU’s most influential boosters and the ear of the Board of Trustees. 

Why then would he consider leaving?

It was Jimbo Fisher, fearful of the SEC’s cachet and money, who began the push for FSU to leave the ACC. It was Fisher’s primary benefactors, Jim Smith (Former Chair of FSU’s Board of Trustees) and Andy Haggard, who lead the charge to apply the pressure necessary for Baron to see a change in conference membership was necessary.

Baron resisted leaving the ACC and used the Big 12’s own internal power struggle over expansion to solidify his support on the Board of Trustees and worked with the ACC to bring Notre Dame into the conference as a partial member.

Baron felt that Notre Dame would restore the luster of the ACC and help bridge the gap between the ACC revenues and those of the SEC, Big 12, Big 10 and Pac 12.

Fisher’s primary concern was his football program and he felt the Big 12 offered FSU a brighter future even with Notre Dame as partial member.

Fisher and his supporters pointed out the ACC’s shiny new relationship with Notre Dame helps the Irish far more than it does the ACC.

How does 1 home game with Notre Dame every 6 years benefit FSU?  Doesn’t Notre Dame’s partial membership just provide the Irish with more exposure in the fertile recruiting grounds of FSU?

Baron didn’t share Jimbo’s concerns. He was committed to the ACC and let it be known that football wasn’t his primary concern. Baron pointed out that the ACC granted FSU’s wish to go back to an 8 game conference schedule and Jimbo would have to be happy with that.

Jimbo was far from happy. His original fears concerning the disadvantage of playing of the ACC only grew worse when the Seminoles lost to North Carolina State. 

Jimbo understands what Baron does not -- ACC football does not have the creditability or respect of the four power conferences and the quality of their football is not even close.

The ACC doesn’t have a single BCS victory since the BCS system was implemented. It’s programs, with the exception of Virginia Tech, Clemson and FSU are not nationally respected as football powers. The ACC consistently loses out on recruiting battles with SEC schools and now, with West Virginia in the Big 12, the Mountaineers are a bigger recruiting threat than ever.

Now factor in the increased visibility Texas and Oklahoma  receive in the eastern U.S. due to WVU's Big 12 membership and the spectre of Notre Dame having the same once they become a partial member of the ACC. 

Fisher knows football and when he looks at the landscape in the ACC and the coming changes to college football he knows that even a storied program like FSU will have a hard time overcoming the anchor the stigma of ACC football puts on the Seminole’s championship football aspirations.

More importantly what concerns Fisher is his relationship with Baron and his new found understanding he may not get the support he needs from his administration to compete with the power conferences. 

Can Fisher count on Baron when FSU needs to match the SEC or Big 12 dollar for dollar? Can he afford to schedule enough challenging out of conference games to compensate for the ACC's poor reputation? 

Baron's actions tell Jimbo all he needs to know. 

And it’s that realization has lead  Jimbo Fisher to authorize his representatives to convey to both Auburn and Tennessee that he would be very interested in leading their football programs. 

WVU faced almost the identical situation in 2008 when Rich Rodriguez, still suffering from a devastating loss that kept WVU from the title game, wanted assurances from then WVU president Mike Garrison and former athletic director Eddie Pastilong that he would have all the resources he needed to pursue a national championship at WVU. 

Rodriguez left a meeting with Garrison disappointed that the president would not give him the support he felt the program needed and accepted the Michigan job shortly thereafter. 

Garrison made a mistake that set the Mountaineer program back several years and Eric Baron is about to make the same mistake.

*****

Just because Fisher has authorized his representatives to speak with Auburn and Tennessee doesn't mean he will leave FSU. It only means he has concerns about the level of support his football program will receive from the Baron administration.

This isn't the first time Jimbo has contemplated leaving FSU. Jimbo's people reached out to West Virginia after Rodriguez's departure from WVU and made it known he had interest in coming to WVU. Fisher's $2.5 million buyout was the official reason Jimbo never made it to Morgantown but others inside WVU tell me that Fisher was offered and accepted the job before factions within WVU's foundation refused to honor the agreement to cover Fisher's buyout.