Chat Talking Points

Premise #1: Scheduling Alliance Doesn’t Save ACC

Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby sent waves of panic through the Big 12 when he said his conference was pursuing scheduling alliances with the Pac 12 and ACC. Especially  concerning was his comments that alliances give the Big 12 all the benefits of expansion with none of the risks.

Bowlsby’s comments sound fishy don’t they? Why, just days after admitting for the first time that the Big 12 would talk “philosophically” about expansion, would he throw cold water on the prospects of Big 12 expansion?

I asked a few of my friends at WVU that question today and the answers I received didn’t clear up the issue.

One said: “Bowlsby doesn’t want to be the bad guy; he wants to avoid even the slightest hint of tortious interference on the part of the Big 12. “

He went on to clarify, Bowlsby’s in a good spot in some ways. He can sit back and play nice with the ACC with full knowledge that the  Big 10 has their eyes on as many as 6 ACC schools.

My other friend at WVU is a suspicious sort. He believes there is meaning in Bowlsby’s comments about benefiting from an alliance with the ACC without taking on the risk of expansion. He believes it’s a scheme by Deloss Dodd to derail Big 12 expansion.

I must point out here that my primary contact at WVU, let’s call him “Mr. Big” has yet to get back to me on this subject.

I also traded emails with several of my contacts in the media and they agreed talk of an ACC – Big 12 Alliance is much to do about nothing.

They also agreed it isn’t an informal attempt to merge the Big 12 and ACC to protect each conference against an attack from the Big 10.

An alliance doesn’t put additional money in the pockets of either conference since both of their T1 & T2 rights are tied up in long-term contracts. 

Such a scheduling alliance has zero effect on the bottom line.

And for ACC fans they annoying question persists: Why did Swofford reach out to Bowlsby? Most I spoke to yesterday about the move viewed it as an act of desperation by the ACC. 

Premise #2: The Big 10 Doesn’t Care

The Big 10 doesn’t care what alliances the ACC forms. They have their sights on as many as 6 ACC schools and recent statements are a clear message that Jim Delany intends to deliver the “kill shot” to the ACC.

Ohio State President, and former President of WVU, E. Gordon Gee told OSU’s athletic council last month that:

"there has been ongoing discussion" about expansion and "believes there is movement towards three or four super conferences that are made up of 16-20 teams."

Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon told ESPN that:

"Based on the last three years I've been in this business, you’d be crazy not to think about it. But it's hard to model anything because you don’t know what to model. The minute you get yourself convinced that you're going to go from 14 to 16, for all you know you’re going to 18, and a lot of people think the ultimate landing place is 20. Who knows? There’s too many variables out there to predict it."

You don’t have to read between the lines to know the only major conference that’s not protected by a Grant-of-Rights (excluding the SEC) is the ACC.

The ACC is a conference with internal fractures running across the football – basketball and city – country divides that are compounded by low earnings and what’s perceived as unequal treatment and preference given to UNC and Duke.

The conference also has valuable football commodities that are harmed by the ACC’s focus on basketball and that put it (the ACC) squarely in the crosshairs of the Big 10.

UVA, GT, UNC, FSU, Boston College and even Duke have all had discussions with the Big 10 and Delany has focused his attention on UVA, GT, UNC, BC and FSU.

According to my sources in the Big 10 the AAU status is still a big deal as federal research money is one of the primary factors in the Big 10 appealing to ACC schools, but Jim Delany believes a school, given the proper resources, mentorship and motivation can raise itself up to AAU standards and he is willing to consider offering schools without AAU status who have a viable plan to achieve the designation in the near future.

Premise #3: The Big 12 Must Expand

The Big 12 has the smallest media footprint of all the major conferences. It also delivered weak ratings for Fox on its primetime matchups for last season. The two are related. A small media footprint translates into weak ratings.

Weak ratings are bad for the Big 12 because it depends on its T1 and T2 nationally televised games for the bulk of the TV revenue it disburses to its members.

It’s not all bad for the Big 12 though.

It has a Grant-or-Rights that protects the future of the conference for at least 12 years and by 2014 Big 12 schools should see their revenues around $40 million per year. It has an alliance with the SEC to match champions in the Sugar Bowl and it has great football.

But that’s today. What about in 12 years? Weak ratings are only part of the problem for the Big 12. What if the conference has a bad run in the years leading up to contract renewal?

I agree its unlikely but with only 10 members the Big 12 is susceptible to a down-cycle that could effect the new TV contract in 2025.

The answer is expansion. Especially expanding into the southeast and vast population centers of Florida, South Carolina, Virginia and North Carolina.

Most in the Big 12 understand the challenges and believe expansion is the key to the long-term survival of the Big 12.

Some do not recognize the danger.

However, nobody in the Big 12 wants to expand if the money isn’t there.  Based on the Big 12’s projections of what the Big 10 and SEC may do the conference understands that Florida is the key to making expansion economically viable.

The Big 12 must acquire FSU or Miami – preferably both to make expansion feasible.

After FSU and Miami the value is in GT (headed to the Big 10), NC State (A candidate for the SEC), Clemson and Virginia Tech (Candidate for the SEC).

After those 5 the value declines sharply. Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Syracuse are roughly valued at the same level.

Expansion west-ward is not an option based on the need to expand the electronic footprint although San Diego State would add TV sets and allow the Big 12 to balance out the West – East divisions if the Big 10 takes more than 2-4 ACC schools.

The big prize for the Big 12 is FSU. FSU has told the Big 12 it would join the conference if the ACC is gutted by defections, they don’t receive an offer from either the Big 10 or SEC, and they have regional partners.

Miami, has apparently told the Big 12 it will come. The Hurricanes don’t have much choice. They have no shot at the Big 10 or the SEC and are in danger of being left out if they don’t grab the Big 12’s offer while its on the table.

Clemson has told the Big 12 the same things as FSU, yes if…

But after those 3 the Big 12 must sit back and wait to see who is available.

Or they can get proactive.

My sources at WVU tell me the Big 12 will discuss inviting 4-6 ACC schools when they meet late next week.

The idea is they can offer these ACC schools in block and give them a chance to maintain the rivalries they established as ACC members.

Big 12 fans should get too excited though. Nobody in the ACC is going to jump before its clear they must move or be left behind.

That means the Big 12 is at the mercy of the Big 10 and SEC.

We can be almost certain that the Big 12 will not officially invite anyone yet. They won't extend invitations until they know the invitations will be accepted and until UVA moves nobody in the ACC, except for Miami, will accept. 

Premise #4: Texas Is Against Expansion

Remember when I said some in the Big 12 don’t see the danger in not expanding? It’s very likely that Deloss Dodds will have retired before the next time the Big 12 negotiates a television contract.

Dodds is secure in knowing that Texas has a home in the Pac 12 should something happen to the Big 12.  He’s more concerned about the Longhorns losing influence in the conference or having to face a tougher schedule and a conference championship game than he is the survival of the Big 12. 

I encourage all Long Horn fans to contact UT’s board and president and apply as much pressure as possible on Texas to advocate Big 12 expansion instead of blocking it.

Maybe all Big 12 fans should do the same with their schools too.

Premise #5:  UVA and GT are Big 10 Bound Why the Delay?

Last week I wrote that UVA would announce their decision to move to the Big 10. I was wrong but my Big 10 source wasn’t wrong.

What my friends in the Big 10 actually told me was that UVA had completed an “execution plan” detailing how they would withdraw from the ACC and begin competing in the Big 10.

The source told me that based on the timelines of Maryland and Rutgers, who also

Submitted “execution plans” that UVA should be days away from announcing.

He even clarified that Maryland and Rutgers announced two days after Delany accepted the “execution plan”.

I made the assumption that UVA would also announce days after Delany accepted their plan.

I failed to take into consideration what numerous reporters, media contacts and my friends at WVU were telling me.

UVA and GT will wait on the UMD – ACC lawsuit to announce.

It’s not the exit fee that’s delaying the announcement. Both UVA and GT will receive similar deals with the Big 10 that front loads revenues and provides help with whatever the exit fee turns out to be. 

The problem is that the ACC is withholding disbursements to Maryland until the full $52 exit fee is paid.

Keep in mind Maryland hasn’t even formerly withdrawn from the ACC. They have until August 1, 2013 to give official notice.

Neither UVA or GT can afford to go without TV revenues from the ACC. They’ll raise money from boosters and use the help of the Big 10 to pay whatever fee the courts determine is fair, but they must wait until a Maryland judge rules on the Terp’s request for relief from the ACC’s withholding of funds.

Addendum:  One of my Big 10 sources tells me that only UVA and Boston College are prepared to accept the Big 10's offer right now. What is Georgia Tech waiting for?

Premise #5:  Future Homes of ACC Members

Based on my conversations with many people with knowledge of what’s going on here’s where I think ACC teams will end up.

Boston College – Big 10 (1)

Clemson – Big 12 (1)

Duke – Big 10 (2)

FSU – Big 10 or Big 12. (2)

Georgia Tech – Big 10 (3)

Louisville – Big 12 (3)

Miami – Big 12 (4)

Pitt – Big 12 (5)

UNC –  Big 10 (4)

NC St – SEC 12 (1)

UVA – Big 10 (5)

Virginia Tech  - SEC (2)

Cincinnati – Big 12 (6)

Big 10 – 20 with ND as #20.

SEC with 16.

Big 12 with 16.