The Big 12 is About to Make a Big Mistake

What do Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Maryland  have in common? 

For starters they are all hallowed institutions from the ACC with national championships in either football or basketball. They are also respected academic institutions and boast large TV markets, a solid recruiting base, and the desire to field championship level teams.

But they have one more thing in common – they all want out of the ACC and into the Big 12.

That’s right; the Big 12 could have Florida State and any one of the other three or the Big 12 could think bold and take all four.

Yet the Big 12 isn’t likely to expand anytime soon and the reason is Notre Dame.

The Big 12 has decided not to extend invitations to FSU, Clemson or anyone else until Notre Dame makes it future conference home known. 

New Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds both think the Irish are close to joining the Big 12 as associate members and will follow later as a full member.

WVU doesn’t believe that. WVU has years of experience as a member of the beleaguered Big East and watched as Notre Dame sat on the sidelines and let the Big East fall apart.

Notre Dame could have saved the Big East at any point. The Irish could have kept Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College from leaving during the first round of ACC expansion and they could have kept Pittsburgh and Syracuse from leaving last year.

The Irish did nothing and that’s just what they will do now. 

I have no doubt that Jack Swarbrick is offering Bowlsby and Dodds assurances about Notre Dame. I have no doubt Swarbrick has told both men Notre Dame is Big 12 bound. 

The problem is I have no doubt that Swarbrick is giving John Swofford the same assurances.

Bowlsby and Dodds are making the mistake of believing Notre Dame. 

They don't know Notre Dame like WVU knows Notre Dame.

Both Bowlsby and Dodds are extremely intelligent men and proven leaders. Such men are not prone to fantasy or wishful thinking and not likely to have the wool pulled over their eyes by Notre Dame, but now it appears the Irish have hoodwinked the Big 12.  

Notre Dame is lying to them while trying to work out better deals with both the ACC and NBC. 

Perhaps Bowlsby and Dodds are blinded by thoughts of their legacies and what it would mean to land the Fighting Irish. Whatever motivates them to pander to Notre Dame they should remember just how fragile the conference was a year ago.

And while they sit and wait for Notre Dame the clock is about to expire on an opportunity of a life-time. 

It's clear that the Irish prefer the ACC. It's clear that the only way the ACC would offer Notre Dame an associate membership is to keep FSU and Clemson from defecting. 

It's clear to WVU that had the Big 12 extended the invitations to FSU and Clemson a month ago that Notre Dame wouldn't even be listening to John Swofford right now. 

Adding Florida State and Clemson to the Big 12  cripples the ACC and permanently secures the future of the Big 12.

FSU and Clemson could be the biggest prize in the expansion contest and the Big 12 is in serious danger of blowing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Every day the Big 12 fails to invite FSU and Clemson is a day John Swofford uses to solidify his conference and  entice Notre Dame to join. 

I understand the Big 12’s desire to add Notre Dame – I get it. What I don’t get is how the Big 12 can gamble their future on a sucker bet.

The Irish will never join a conference as full member unless they are forced to do so. But by inviting FSU and Clemson now, the Big 12 can eliminate the ACC as a viable home for the Irish. 

Supposedly the Big 12 is dead set on not expanding past 12. That's a foolish position given what's at stake and who's interested. It's even more foolish to think Notre Dame will join the Big 12 as a full member. 

In West Virginia we have something called a “Snipe Hunt”. The hunt is actually ruse for the gullible.  As legend has it the Snipe is small, fast, flightless, pheasant like bird found in the deep woods of West Virginia.

A Snipe hunt has “drivers” and “holders”.

The “holders” are taken into the woods and given small cloth bags and instructed to hide in the brush and wait while the more experienced “Drivers” chase the birds in their direction. When the birds come running towards them the “bag holders” are supposed to catch the birds in their bags.

Guess what happens next? The “Drivers” drive off and leave the “holders” stranded deep in the woods holding the bag.

I can only guess that it will be the Big 12 left holding the bag If Bowlsby and Dodds keep chasing Notre Dame.

Musings:

Before anyone jumps on Texas you should remember that it was Texas that made the necessary concessions to keep the Big 12 together and put the conference in the position of strength it enjoys today.

Each and every member of the Big 12 must share the responsibility of the Notre Dame “Snipe Hunt” and direct Bowlsby to act on Florida State and Clemson before its too late.

There is still time if the Big 12 forgets about Notre Dame and acts quickly.

The Big 12 has been counseled by the SEC on the horrors of 14 members and the scheduling problems that result from expansion. It could be the SEC  would prefer the ACC to stay intact to keep the Big 10 from establishing a footprint in SEC territory. 

One Final Thing

I've worked hard trying to find out the reasons for the delay the past few weeks and time and time again the answer was Notre Dame. But there was one other answer...

One very credible source told me the current Big 12 contract was written when Colorado and Nebraska were still in the conference and doesn't have a provision to pay additional money for FSU and Clemson. The Big 12's TV partners agreed to honor the existing contract written for 12 and pay the same amount of money to 10 members. Adding FSU and Clemson for 2013 would then reduce the amount paid out to Big 12 schools. My thoughts are that adding institutions as valuable as  FSU and Clemson would pay, but I understand that contracts can be reopened unless their is expansion beyond the number of members when it was signed. Even with that said the potential to add 4 ACC schools would significantly up the dollar amount of the Big 12 contract.

Stop the Insanity

Stop the insanity. Just stop for a moment, take a deep breathe and think logically about the rumors you heard today. Stop thinking like a fan; stop thinking like a booster – and start thinking like a businessman.

The Big 12 has not passed on Clemson. Clemson has not passed on the Big 12. The wheels continue to turn and the process continues to play out.

Television deals are being finalized, BCS playoff formulas are being debated and nothing has changed.

BYU is a fine institution but the Big 12 has eastward expansion on their minds. Expansion into the talent-rich recruiting hotbeds of Florida and South Carolina and the prospect of millions of households tuned into Big 12 football and the ancillary coverage of the thousands of newspapers and radio stations in the south that eat, sleep and breathe college football.

BYU has national appeal. They have a dedicated fan base and a commitment to winning, but they are not in the southern United States.  Utah and the surrounding region is not a hotbed of recruiting as is Florida and South Carolina.

BYU’s recent fortunes also mean the Cougars just don’t have the same appeal as FSU or Clemson.

Think like a television programming executive – which matchup please you more: Texas – FSU or Texas – BYU? Which game is more likely to be picked up nationally: Oklahoma – Clemson or Oklahoma – BYU?

To anyone who has ever tied a Windsor knot around their throat the answer is clear.

If you still doubt remember this: FSU isn’t coming without an old ACC partner. The Seminoles would never leave the ACC if BYU was #12 instead of Clemson.

If the Big 12 drops Clemson they lose FSU… its as simple as that.

The Notre Dame rumors are even more unbelievable. Clearly the Fighting Irish are dead-set on remaining independent and their potential new contract with NBC/Comcast provides them the cash to remain that way.

Notre Dame could well join the Big 12 as an associate member in basketball and Olympic sports but never at the expense of adding Clemson and FSU.

The Big 12 isn’t going to expand for expansions sake. Oklahoma and Texas like the conference at 10 just fine and the prospect of a championship games only moves their needle when they see the dollar signs associated with the game.

And as much as I respect and value the BYU program the Cougars are not one of the institutions the Big 12’s television partners would pay additional money for --  and why expand if it doesn’t provide the cash?

The Big 12’s leaders get up in the morning and put their suits on just like the guys running the show at ESPN. They understand how to tie their Windsor knot and they understand the mechanics of the college game – its now a business.

Passing on Clemson and forcing FSU to pass as well just isn’t a good business decision and the rumors you heard today just are not true.

Miscellany

Take a break. Relax. Train for a bike race or just walk your dog.  Tune back in late July and see what’s shakin’ – until them its all just rumor and innuendo. 

One more time - Clemson and FSU are a package deal. Nothing has changed. 

ND Will Not Save the ACC

John Swofford knew the ACC was in trouble. He knew the ACC’s new television deal with ESPN placed the conference far behind the big four in terms of revenue and prestige and he knew his best football programs had wandering eyes and lust for SEC-like paydays.

Swofford had to be nervous. He had to be worried, but he’s John Swofford – the original architect of conference expansion,  the master poacher who pulled off the addition of basketball powers Pittsburgh and Syracuse with nary a credible leak; and he had a plan to secure his legacy and hold the ACC together – more expansion.

 Swofford knew the ACC’s problem could be solved  with more cash and the only way the ACC could wrangle more dollars out of ESPN was to grow the ACC to 16.

Swofford reasoned that by adding two more to the ACC’s ranks he could go back to ESPN and renegotiate the television contract to accommodate the new members. 

The only trouble was schools that would add the value needed to bring the ACC on par with the Big 12’s pending television deal are few and far between.

The obvious choice was Notre Dame. The Irish, despite not making much of a splash in the last 20 years, have the prestige to add the big dollars necessary to save the ACC.

Credible, but unconfirmed, reports suggest Swofford had been in talks with Notre Dame and was willing to give the Irish almost anything they wanted to lure them into the conference. Notre Dame was willing to listen but reluctant to make any commitment before the BCS playoff formula is known.

The Irish value their independence and their television revenues. Conventional wisdom said the only way the Irish join a conference as a football member is if the new BCS formula forces them to join.

That scenario doesn’t seem likely to happen and with reports sufacing this morning that Notre Dame is close to signing a deal with NBC/Comcast to extend their television contract it seems more and more likely the Irish will stay independent.

If Notre Dame was to be the savior of the ACC what does John Swofford do now?

One thing he doesn’t do is give up. Swofford has reached out to other high-value teams in the Big 12 and SEC but every one of those schools declined.

The question is what does Swofford do now?

Miscellany

Jim Lamar takes an exhaustive look at FSU’s ACC revenues. Lamar’s story can be read online at http://www.tallahassee.com/article/20120612/FSU03/120612002/FSU-s-take-from-ACC-2011-12-16-85-million?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|frontpage&nclick_check=1

One interesting fact in Lamar’s article is the notation that:

"The ACC also distributed $167,400.58 from its reserves to each school."

I’m wondering how often that disbursement occurs or if it was a special  attempt to inflate the monetary disbursement the ACC handed out.

I’m also wondering how the Big 12 stacks up against the ACC in terms disbursements item by item.

Don’t expect to learn anything from the Clemson Board of Trustee’s teleconference tonight other than Dabo is against the move.

I continue to say the ACC could put a fork in all the speculation on FSU and Clemson by simply releasing details of their new TV contract. If the TV contract starts out at $13 or $14 million and takes 9 years to reach a $17 million payout we may have a smoking gun to explain once and for all why ACC schools are reaching out to other conferences.

The ACC has done a poor job of public relations.  Sure they’ve had a few journalists preach the party line but they fail to understand that perception is reality. Sometimes perception is really reality -- one case in point is the attempt to rebrand the ACC as a football oriented conference.

Take a look at the chart below:

School	5 Y W-L	10 Y W-L	BCS	Football Grade
Boston College	39-27	84-45	0-0	C+
Clemson	41-26	79-50	0-1	C
Duke	16-44	25-93	0-0	F
Florida State	42-24	85-46	0-1	C+
Georgia Tech	41-25	78-52	0-1	C
Maryland	27-36	67-58	0-0	D
Miami	34-29	82-44	2-1	B-
North Carolina	35-29	54-69	0-0	F
NC State	33-30	67-58	0-0	D
Pittsburgh	38-26	74-51	0-0	C-
Syracuse	22-39	43-77	0-0	F
Virginia	29-33	66-59	0-0	F
Virginia Tech	53-16	102-37	1-5	A
Wake Forest	31-32	62-60	0-1	D
West Virginia	48-17	95-33	3-0	A

I after compiling that simple chart I understand now why Pittsburgh was considered a football addition by many in the ACC. It's not that Pittsburgh has been good, it's that ACC football has been terrible. 

Look at the W-L for a 5 and 10 year period and tell me the ACC is football centric conference with a straight face.

WVU was added as a comparison. 

I'm going to be away for the next four days with little or no access. My silence is not backtracking or hiding.. 

Line of Demarcation

Last week FSU gave a classic non-denial. They used rhetoric to say much about nothing.

Nothing was said, but it was an important nothing. 

They did not pledge allegiance to the ACC.

They did not back away from the Big 12.

They said all the right things to remain non-committed and open to available opportunities.

Somehow FSU’s positioning was interpreted as backing away from the Big 12 – that interpretation is wrong, but I can understand why so many understood it that way.

Expectations blossomed in the days leading up to the Board of Trustees meeting with rumors of an impending announcement by the Seminoles confirming their interest in the Big 12 – that didn’t happen. It couldn’t happen because the conference expansion line of demarcation hadn’t been crossed.

A line of demarcation is a boundary – a line that is often used to separates temporary geopolitical borders – like the boundary between the Big 12 and ACC.

If you think of an invitation to join the Big 12 as that imaginary line of demarcation its easy to understand why FSU choose to play coy.

FSU would be foolish to make any comment officially declaring their love of the Big 12(‘s money).  They do not have an offer to join the Big 12.

They will have that offer soon -- maybe as soon as July 1^st when WVU and TCU become voting members in the Big 12 and Bob Bowlsby is officially in office—maybe even sooner; think after the June 20^th BCS meeting.

And when that offer is made FSU will accept and  bring  Clemson with them to the Big 12.

FSU is telling some that a move for 2013 is unlikely. They are telling the media a move in 2014 is more realistic.

Privately FSU is telling the Big 12 they will have everything in order to notify the ACC of their departure by the August 15^th deadline.

FSU assured Big 12 members the move was still on track over the weekend. 

Despite the obvious signals the doubt of the pending move lingers, especially among those with allegiance to the ACC.

Their doubt comes from FSU’s vanishing budget deficit and the rhetorical comments made by FSU at the end of last week.

They forget this has never been about FSU’s small budget deficient or how the ACC found some extra BCS money to balance the Seminole  spreadsheet.

This is about the college football arm’s race. This is about FSU being able to at least stay in the neighborhood with SEC teams who have the means to outspend them in everything from facilities to coaching salaries.

This is about Jimbo Fisher having $500,000 a year to spend on recruiting and money to retain his staff.

This is about the ACC’s champion being forced to play the 3^rd of 4^th finisher in one of the 4 power conferences in the Orange Bowl or perhaps even partnering with the Big East or Conference USA.

This is about the new ACC contract that takes 9 years to reach the $17 million payout promised.

This is about the future of FSU football.

Miscellany

Swofford is working hard to save the conference and extract more money from ESPN. The only way Swofford can reopen the talks is to expand and the only team on the market that adds the value the ACC needs is Notre Dame. Rumors of what Swofford is offering Notre Dame would tear the conference apart.

Why hasn’t the Big 12 extended an invitation to FSU and Clemson? Conflicting information from equally credible sources muddy the waters on this one. Texas holding out hope for Notre Dame is plausible especially with the BCS playoff format potentially forcing ND into a conference, but if the SEC and Big 12 get their way Notre Dame will have a way into the playoff without conference affiliation. Equally plausible is the notion that the Big 12 is waiting on Bowlsby taking office and for West Virginia and TCU to become voting members.

What doesn’t make sense is that FSU isn’t ready with the paperwork. FSU commissioned a study on travel costs for Big 12 membership  and if they have went that far they have their paperwork in order.

Did anyone notice Eric Barron’s “talking points” listed Big 12 revenue as $22 million? Where did you hear that before? What Barron didn’t tell the FSU BoT’s (but they know) is that the ACC contract pays only $13 million in 2012 and goes up $500K each year until it hits $17 million in 2021. 

FSU Navigating Move to Big 12 with Caution

I was never a  fan of “Little House on the Prairie”  but I recall one episode where Charles and Mr. Edwards took a job transporting nitroglycerin in a wagon over rough dirt roads.

The nitroglycerin was unstable and the two pioneers had to be extremely careful not to jar their load. While one man drove the wagon the other would walk in front and smooth the way by filling in holes and removing rocks.  Their pace was slow but  steady and eventually they reached their destination without incident. 

FSU’s journey to the Big 12 is more like that methodical wagon ride with load of unstable high-explosives.

Moving from one athletic conference to another is complicated.  Legal issues must be worked out and budgets prepared. Boosters need to be contacted and asked to increase their donations to make up for lost revenue during the transition and other issues to numerous to mention must be properly dealt with before any announcements are made.

FSU isn’t in a position to make any announcement other than to deny interest in the Big 12; and more than likely that’s just what they will do during their Board of Trustee meetings today and tomorrow.

They will make a statement denying interest in the Big 12 and then continue to work on navigating their way out of the conference in private.

The Board of Trustee will certainly discuss the Big 12 and they’re likely to authorize president Eric Barron to open formal talks with the conference, but we’ll not hear FSU acknowledge any decision.

Before you panic keep this in mind:

• The Big 12 has not had a formal vote on FSU or Clemson;
• FSU will not withdraw from the ACC until they have that vote has taken place;
• a formal vote on FSU can’t take place until FSU is ready and they’re not ready.

No offense to Randy Spetman but he’s not in control of the Florida State athletic department and the vacuum in leadership is slowing down the process.

FSU's Boosters, their Board of Trustees and Jimbo Fisher are  running the show in place of the figurehead Spetman--- that’s too many cooks in the kitchen.

So what does this mean?

FSU is leaving the ACC for the Big 12. They money at stake, between $6 - $9 million per year, is simply too great for Barron to ignore.

It’s a simple business decision made easier by a glance at the balance sheet.

Barron is also being heavily pressured to make the move by Jimbo Fisher. 

Fisher’s chirping about money to keep the facilities on par with FSU’s SEC neighbors and the funds to keep his coaching staff intact are being heard loud and clear in the president’s office -- especially when board members and boosters are echoing those same sentiments.

The move will happen.

The question is when.

FSU maybe able to pull the administrative rabbit out of the hat and get this done in time to play Big 12 football in 2013 or they may not.

They  may follow the Texas A&M model.

The problem is that no one, including FSU, knows what course they will take.

They need Charles and Mr. Edwards to smooth the road to the Big 12 for them. 

How the ACC Can Save the ACC.

 I know how John Swofford can save the ACC.

I know how John Swofford can end the debate and silence all the criticism of his conference.

How?

Swofford can end all the discussion and debate, end the battering the ACC is taking in the Tallahassee Democrat and Forbes, just by releasing the details of the new television deal with ESPN.

There are those who feel the ACC is just doing a terrible job at public relations. They believe the ACC is just above the fray and feels no need to comment more than what Swofford has done by refusing to discuss “hypotheticals”.

Those who feel that way should know that sometimes silence is consent. 

If what I’ve been told about the ACC contract with ESPN is true then the ACC is far better off by remaining silent than by making the situation worse with any attempt at clarification.

A Confederacy of Dunces

Just a short week ago I promised myself I would not act as the media’s ombudsman but a recent posting by Chadd Scott has me riled up enough to address his article on chuckoliver.net.

In a piece titled “Lies & Ignorance Continue to Fuel Desire of Many FSU & Clemson Fans to Ditch ACC” Scott lists five “lies” to make the point that he is smarter than the FSU and Clemson administrations.

Lie #1 – Andy Haggard’s statements were 100% false about the ACC TV contract.

Andy Haggard’s statements may have factually challenged on some issues but the underlying message of his rant was accurate and should not be ignored by those like Mr. Scott who prefer to interpret statements in the manner that best support their opinion.

Haggard’s message was that FSU is not happy with the ACC television contract and  they are not happy with the ACC’s leadership.  They are not happy that ACC member institutions like Duke and Wake Forest earn the same amount of TV money as FSU without sharing FSU’s commitment to playing championship football.

Scott’s assertions that the factually incorrect portions of Haggard’s statements are improperly influencing fans to support FSU’s exit from the ACC is incorrect as well.

Scott obviously didn’t spend much time researching his point because Haggard’s statements have fallen off the radar.

Lie #2 – The ACC’s contract is Industry Standard.

Scott cites a generic press release from ESPN addressing the back-loading of the ACC TV contract. What he does not address, nor does ESPN, is the number of years added onto the existing TV contract before the revenue increases begin to manifest.

Many people with knowledge of the contract say that the ACC “gave up more for less than any conference in the history of college football.”

Lie #3 – The ACC values football as much as basketball and neither UNC or Duke get preferential treatment.

Anyone who makes the argument that the ACC isn’t a basketball centric league needs to rethink his or her position. It is much better for the ACC to be thought of as a basketball oriented conference than to be labeled as “inept” in college football.

The idea that the ACC values football as much as basketball is so fantastical that the only credible counterpoint  is the decades long success of Virginia Tech. The success of Virginia Tech as a national power has had more to do with Tech’s reputation as a football power in the old Big East and weak scheduling in the ACC than any success on the gridiron.

And if you doubt me consider the ACC’s BCS bowl record.

As for preferential treatment... what were those additional sanctions given to UNC by the ACC again?

Lie #4 – The financial disparity between the ACC and Big 12 is not great enough to entice FSU or Clemson to move.

Do you believe FSU (or Clemson) would leave the ACC for $3 million dollars? I don't and neither should you.

Scott states the article by Dennis Dodd as proof his belief  but fails to mention the article by Dodd was interpreted by many to say that the Big 12 was guaranteed their average payout would not be less than $20 million per team no matter who they added.

Scott fails to consider that both FSU and Clemson would vastly improve the Big 12’s available T1 and T2 programming and he failed to pick up on a recent quote by interim Big 12 commissioner Chuck Neinas where he appended “or more” onto his statement about the Big 12’s contract.

The gap will be between $6 and $9 million and could be as much as $10 despite what the selective quotes Mr. Scott decides to take out of context. 

However, just for giggles, let’s say the Big 12’s contract is $20 million and that the ACC’s contract is $13 million (once the ACC’s full share is deducted) for a period of 5 to 7 years – that’s a gap of $7 million per year and $35 million over a 5 year period (the window for the contract look-in for the ACC comes after 5 years).

Lie #5 – The ACC will be included, with equal opportunity, in the new playoff system.

Again, its  just fantastical that Scott fails to accurately assess the landscape of college football and actually makes this assertion.

The Big 4 have chosen their dancing partners and the ACC wasn’t invited.

The absolute best the ACC can do is have their champion play the second or third team from one of the  power conferences – does that sound like the ACC is included?

At least Scott didn’t make the infantile argument that the ACC provides an easier road to the playoffs due to lack of competition (see Lie #3) because we all know how well that worked for the Big East, ACC and Conference USA.

Just how ignorant is Chadd Scott to expect us to believe his drivel?

The big lie is that writers like Chadd Scott didn’t see this coming and refuse to accept the new reality that FSU and Clemson are headed to the Big 12.