Quick Update

Just a quick update before I head out of town.

I received an email from my buddy about 20 minutes ago saying not to believe the "Big 12 is happy at 10" stuff  and that the "Big 12 was ready to move on expansion soon."

He confirmed my belief that we'll have resolution on expansion by the end of June with possible movement after the BCS vote on June 20th.

Previously  he has  advised me not to but much stock in reports of Notre Dame joining the conference and expressed his belief that Notre Dame could make more money as a member of the Big 10. His believes that all Notre Dame football games would be picked up as either T1 or T2 broadcasts and that T3 rights to basketball and olympic sports would earn the Irish more money as part of the Big 10 Network.

His view hasn't changed even though Notre Dame has apparently given the Big 12 some assurances they would join the conference if the BCS playoff format requires conference champions.

He also says that everyone except Texas is against Notre Dame as an associate member and right now the vote would be 7-1 or 9-1 against (counting WVU and TCU) allowing Notre Dame in without football.  The idea that Notre Dame would play only select members of the Big 12 in football until they can join as a full member is not popular and will not be approved.

What did you expect?

Imagine the scene: Chuck Neinas  walks up the podium and boldly declares “With the 11^th and 12^th picks in the college football expansion draft the Big 12 conference selects Florida State and Clemson universities.”

The Twitterverse would have exploded.

Instead the Big 12 threw a big wet blanket on expansion.

The Big 12 is happy with 10.

The Big 12 hasn’t contacted either FSU or Clemson.

Neinas denied it all.

Before you hit the panic button think back to last year when SEC commissioner Mike Slive sated the SEC was happy with 12.

The SEC was so happy with 12 that they added Texas A&M.

Slive then went on record saying the SEC was happy with 13.

Somebody in Birmingham must have suffered from triskaidekaphobia because the SEC promptly added Missouri.

Get the picture?

We should have all learned by now when a conference says it’s happy with x number of members that expansion is just around the corner.

And expansion is just around the corner for the Big 12 with the addition of FSU and Clemson.

FSU and Clemson are still on track, but nothing will happen until Bob Bowlsby takes office and the BCS vote is finalized.

It’s that BCS vote that will determine if the Big 12 expands to 12 or  14.

If Notre Dame is forced into a conference by the new BCS deal then it’s a solid bet that the Big 12 will be their new home.

And if you doubt expansion is still on track consider what Bowlsby said yesterday to Dennis Dodd: “The Big 12 certainly doesn't want to make the same mistake three times, admiring that national landscape while the world passes it by.”

Miscellany

I suggest that everyone read Dennis Dodd’s article posted last night:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/19206833/big-12s-born-again-and-feeling-its-oats-sitting-at-10-12-or-14

But when you do don’t overreact to the dollar numbers mentioned.  The key here is the “at least $20 million”. The number with FSU and Clemson is expected to be closer to $25 million without the money for a championship game or the new champions bowl.

In Dodd’s story he says “One industry source said that number applies whether the Big 12 invites, "Appalachian State or Florida State." but that’s not an accurate portrayal of the contract. 

FSU will be the first to move. FSU will more than likely submit a written request to be considered for Big 12 membership along with the necessary paperwork shortly after the BCS vote on June 20^th.  I’m not going to put any date on it but if we haven’t heard word of FSU’s intentions by the end of June I’ll start to worry.

Contrary to popular belief withdrawing from the ACC before applying is not required by the Big 12. WVU accepted an invitation to the Big 12 and then sent notice to the Big East.

Clemson is still 1 or 2 votes shy of having their Board of Trustees approve a move to the Big 12. Once its clear that the ACC is effectively out of the picture for the BCS playoff system its expected Clemson will have all the votes it needs.

FSU’s Board of Trustee is ready to move. If they had their way FSU would have danced into the Big 12 meetings with cowboy hats singing “Home on the Range”. 

To Be (Big Time) or Not to Be (Big Time)

Recruiting has a dead period and so does conference expansion.

News is hard to come by and rumors are plenty.

Chuck Neinas tells the Dallas Morning News the conference is more concerned with welcoming West Virginia and TCU than it is expanding and all over the south Clemson and Florida State fans panic.

The ACC blogger for ESPN pens a story based on opinion and the party-line spoon feed by Swofford and Big 12 fans despair.

In the absence of real news the media (and bloggers) feel compelled to address every rumor and re-cycle tired arguments based on their outdated stereotype of the Big 12.

Relax Clemson. Relax FSU.

Bloggers like Heather Dinich make every argument in the book as to why FSU and Clemson will stay in the ACC but they miss the obvious reasons why both will leave: money and prestige.

Maybe writers like Dinich and David Teel just dismiss money as a motivator for change? It isn’t hard for to understand why if you believe the revenue gap between the Big 12 and ACC is only $3 million dollars.

No one of sound mind would expect FSU to leave the ACC over a measly $3 million dollars and we know Clemson, as a founding member of the ACC, would never leave over such a paltry amount.

The gap is much larger – at the minimum the gap will be $6 million and could reach as much as $9 million per year.

We don’t have the final numbers on the Big 12 TV contract and we don’t know much about the ACC’s TV deal either. All we know is the ACC is claiming an average payout of $17 million per team but there is great debate over the revenue schedule and when ACC schools will begin to see that $17 million.

All we know for certain about the ACC TV contract is that neither Florida State nor Clemson are happy with it.

The ACC could solve this issue and clear up any misunderstanding by releasing the TV contract but no one expects that to happen -- least of all writers like Dinich. 

The other issue that ACC apologists can’t explain away is prestige. The ACC just doesn’t have the reputation as a football conference.

No one, not even the many ACC apologists like Teel, Dinich or Chadd Scott, can make the argument that the ACC isn't behind the SEC, Big 12, Pac 12 and Big 10 in football.

Writers like Teel can claim the ACC values football until the Hokies come home to roost, but  just  glance at the ACC’s BCS record (2-14) and its clear the conference has earned its reputation as a basketball league.

What’s also clear is the ACC is about to be marginalized down to the level of the new Big East or Conference USA.

Once again the ACC apologists take issue with the idea that the mighty ACC will soon be on the level of the Big East. They argue that an undefeated ACC team would qualify for whatever playoff system the BCS implements.

Yea right. I know they don’t want to hear it but the ACC hasn’t exactly been a popular selection in the BCS. If not for the Orange Bowl the ACC would have been in stiff competition with the Big East champion for who gets picked last.

ACC apologists like to ignore the fact that the only way an ACC could even hope to sniff the playoffs is by going undefeated and playing a tough out-of-conference schedule.

Dinich and her ACC fan base just can’t seem to wrap their minds around the fact that FSU and Clemson can’t stay in the ACC and remain relevant college football powers.

It’s that simple--stay in the ACC and reap the benefits of a bad TV contract and fall further and further behind their SEC neighbors or leave for Big 12 and reap the rewards of big time college football.

Nothing represents FSU’s dilemma better than a statement made by FSU booster Jim Smith directed to the Board of Trustees concerning FSU's budget problems:

"Florida State needs to decide if we're going to be in big-time athletics or not," Smith said after the meeting. "I think we've got the support to be in big-time athletics. I think we're structured wrong.

"Frankly, I hope this is a wake-up call," Smith added. "We have some very, very good coaches here. When they wake up and realize that they have less resources than these schools that are raising (their budgets) 15-20 percent a year, then they will be gone. You can't blame them for that."

Smith nailed the issue without bluster or spin. Florida State needs to decide if they are going to be in big-time athletics or not.

Smith knows that money is needed to pay competitive salaries and keep facilities on par with your neighbors (especially if those neighbors are in the SEC) and you can bet that Smith understands the ACC TV contract puts FSU at a disadvantage. 

Its that disadvantage that makes  it almost impossible for  FSU and Clemson  to play college football at the highest level while remaining in the ACC.

Writers like Heather Dinich, David Teel and others can’t seem to see that. Maybe they just can’t accept the Big 12 is in a position to expand at the ACC’s expense or maybe a thick cloud of tobacco smoke is clouding their vision.

Whatever the reason for their blindness I challenge them with this… Given the statements FSU and Clemson have made about the ACC and being open to offers from other conferences… has any school made similar statements and remained in the conference?

Miscellany

Chuck Neinas has a private “coach hunting” business that depends on goodwill. He will not be at the helm of the Big 12 when news of expansion starts to break because he doesn’t want to damage his reputation.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Don’t hold your breath for ND and the Big 12 does not move to 14 unless ND, VPI or NC State are involved.

No news is good news. If leaks come they’ll come from the sources close to FSU and Clemson.  I may regret saying this but its safe to resume your normal life until Bob Bowlsby takes office. 

The Art of Expansion

“If the enemy leaves a door open, you must rush in.” Yancey said.

“What the hell are you talking about?” I asked.

“It’s a principle in Sun Tzu’s "The Art of War". That particular passage relates to the need to seize an opportunity when it arises; to act decisively to take advantage of the situation before you enemy can prepare defenses.”

“How does this apply to Big 12 expansion?” I asked.

Yancey chuckled and reached for a worn, leather-bound book.  

“Sun Tzu was a Chinese general who lived about 2,500 years ago.  He wrote a monograph on war: "The Art of War". His ancient book is full of wisdom that's applicable to modern day life and considered a  guidebook of sorts –  most often quoted in the business world, but his notions on how to kick ass could seem to be a blueprint for the Big 12.”

“I got another one for you."


"At first, then, exhibit the coyness of a maiden, until the enemy gives you an opening; afterwards emulate the rapidity of a running hare, and it will be too late for the enemy to oppose you.”

He had me stymied. I was missing his point with all the talk of war, enemies and coy maidens.

Yancey must have seen my quizzical look, but he did nothing but sit back in his chair and let me figure it out.  

Suddenly the light bulb came on and I got it. Media reports of the Big 12 being content with 10 members which seem to indicate they would pass on adding FSU and Clemson – the reports couldn’t be accurate. If they were the Big 12 would be purposefully turning its back on a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to poach two of the ACC’s best football programs.

“What does adding Florida State and Clemson do for the Big 12?” Yancey asked.

I rattled off the most obvious answers.

“It would immediately destroy the perception that the Big 12 is unstable. It would add the sizeable Florida and South Carolina media markets to the Big 12 footprint. It would give the Big 12 a recruiting presence in the south and it would mean more prestige, security and money for everyone in the conference.”

“And?” Yancey said.

“And it would cripple the ACC and relegate them to the status of the Big East.”

“Yeap.” He said. “Snagging those two would just about do in the ACC and the Big 12 wouldn’t have to be looking over their shoulders worrying about Swofford and his minions trying to steal the Big 12’s seat at the big boy table.”

That’s why the Big 12 has to act. They know the stakes and the money at risk and you can bet they would like to have a few slices of John Swofford’s pie.

I took Yancey’s copy of the Art of War and quickly thumbed through it--two passages immediately caught my eye.

 “ Secret operations are essential in war; upon them the army relies to make its every move.”

“Walk in the path defined by rule, and accommodate yourself to the enemy until you can fight a decisive battle.”

Sun Tzu's tome might as well been the Big 12’s expansion playbook.

The Big 12 has approached expansion secretly, denied involvement, made public comments to appear to play by the rules, and they will act quickly to secure the prize.

The Big 12 has smart, and dare I say ruthless, leaders who understand that opportunities to add schools such as FSU and Clemson are rare; and they aren't afraid of being the bad guy.

Some leaders play checkers, some leaders play chess, but the Big 12’s leaders have gone to war.

And you can bet they’re familiar with the Sun Tzu and the "Art of War".

Not A Thing Has Changed Except for the Process Moving Forward

Relax, take a deep breath and put down your John Swofford voodoo doll.

What David Wilkins said this afternoon was important, but not in the way that many of you think.

Wilkins said the board meeting was being held to dispel "rumors" concerning Clemson’s flirtation with the Big 12. 

Yet his statement after the meeting sent a different message to the ACC.

Clemson is unhappy and wants out.

Don’t believe me?

Ask yourself this… how would you feel if you asked your spouse in they were happy in the relationship and they replied they are willing to listen to other offers?

The relationship between Clemson and the ACC is doomed.

Clemson acknowledged those problems this afternoon and served notice on the ACC that they will be accepting suitors.

Wait, there’s more.

I queried my friend at WVU about Clemson’s status and was told “nothing has changed”.

So how do we reconcile that information with what Wilkins told the press?

It’s easy. The Big 12 and Clemson have not had formal talks. Clemson has not applied to the Big 12 and the Big 12 has not extended Clemson an invitation.

Clemson does not have a formal invitation (or proposal) from the Big 12 to share with the Board of Trustees.

Expect that to change soon.

The Big 12 meets on May 30^th and expansion is on the agenda. Incoming commissioner Bob Bowlsby will be there and so will representatives from WVU and TCU.

You can bet that Clemson and Florida State will be the first items on the agenda.

What isn’t clear is if the expansion committee will vote to extend invitations to FSU and Clemson immediately or wait until TCU and WVU become voting members of the Big 12 after June 30th.

More than likely TCU and WVU will give their advice and consent to extending the invitations and Terry Don Phillips will finally have something to share with Chairman Wilkins.

Before invitations can be formally extended both Clemson and Florida State must apply to the Big 12 for membership.

Neither has done so yet, although I understand FSU’s Board of Trustees have authorized President Eric Barron and AD Spetman to begin the formal process of moving from the ACC to the Big 12.

And if I look at Wilkins’ statement, I easily infer that Clemson’s board authorized Phillips to begin formal discussions with the Big 12 too.

Miscellany 

• FSU and Clemson have come to an agreement with the Big 12 regarding all issues of their move from the ACC.  Technically they can not have come to an agreement because they have not officially began those discussions. I know it may be hard for some to accept this but the details are hammered out in private before a school applies for membership.
• TCU AD Chris Del Conte clarified his statement concerning FSU, Clemson and Miami by saying he spoke in error and had “no confirmation of interest” from any ACC school. Del Conte’s retraction comes more from the Big 12 wanting to avoid the appearance of tampering than any factual error on Del Conte’s part.
• Last night I used a very bad metaphor taken from old television westerns where a scout would put his ear to the ground and hear the thundering hoof-beats of the Native American war party. The metaphor was intended to reference the common knowledge on FSU’s campus that the Seminoles are headed west to join the Big 12. I’m told that even faculty members know about the pending move--and they’re always the last to know.
• In case I haven’t been abundantly clear I’m still certain that both FSU and Clemson are in the process of joining the Big 12.
• My friend shared with me his belief that, despite what the Irish are telling the Big 12 ,they will only join if the Big East collapses and they no longer have a home for their Olympic sports or the new BCS championship formula penalizes independents.
• When FSU announces their move to the Big 12 expect Virginia Tech to immediately petition the SEC for membership.   

It's My Pseudonym!

I knew I was in for an interesting afternoon when I walked home from work and found Yancey’s Volkswagen Thing parked in my driveway.

The bright green Thing with its “Farm Use” plates and a giant cartoon head of lettuce with "Stubbs Family Farm"  painted on the side was hard to miss and the sight of it made me smile.

If you don’t know Yancey Stubbs you should.

Yancey is a legend in southern West Virginia where he is widely recognized as the last gentleman farmer of our modern age.  He is a living anachronism of gentility, a throwback to the time when men wore thick wool coats in the full heat of summer and refused to sweat.

Yancey was the type of guy who could plow his back 40, cut a dozen cord of wood before noon and spend his afternoon reading Harper’s Magazine while sipping moonshine-laced sweet tea and composing letters to the editor complaining about the lack of foresight in the county commission.

He is also completely off the grid and eschews most modern communication devices, which makes him extremely hard to contact.

When the mood strikes him he’ll fire-up his satellite phone and give me a call. Usually we talk Mountaineer football, debate some arcane political point or just shoot the breeze about books.

Sometimes Yancey calls when he thinks I need advice -- for someone as habitually unplugged as he is he seems to have a preternatural ability to know when I've got myself into trouble online.

Yancey once observed that I’m  a person whose throttle was either “full on” or “plum off” and I needed to learn to ease of the gas and coast.

I admit it, I'm hot-blooded and I often get carried away, and when I do Yancey's always been able to talk me down from the proverbial ledge. 

And there he was sitting on my back deck and eating an apple speared on the hook occupying the space where his left hand normally lived.

The hook was  disconcerting, despite our long friendship. Once I asked him how he lost his hand and he just mumbled something about an unfortunate childhood obsession with Captain Hook and left it at that.

I guess some mysteries will remain mysteries.

Yancey swallowed his bite of apple and waved to me in greeting. 

“Just because Chadd Scott is a first class prick doesn’t mean you have to be one too.” He said to me.

I didn’t respond. I knew he was right.

“Forget that ACC lovin’ asshat, what’s bothering you Honus? He said with a wink.

What could I say? Could I tell THE YANCEY STUBBS that I was the accidental journalist who bumbled upon the whole FSU-Clemson story and hid behind a pseudonym to protect my secret identity from the prying eyes of the West Virginia paparazzi?

Could I tell him how much I worried about being wrong, how much I agonized over misconstruing facts or even worse – reading between the lines – and misrepresenting myself and what I wrote?

Words failed me. How could I tell he man who once took Christopher Hitchens to the woodshed over a sloppily-written review of Camus Cognac Cuvee wherein Hitchens described Yancey's favorite adult beverage as being as dry as a Albert Camus novel without the profound philosophical bite, that I just wanted it to be over.

“Don't let them bait you. It doesn’t matter if you use your christian name or not. What matters is that you tell the truth to the best of your ability. “ Yancey advised.

“You don’t owe anyone an explanation. You don’t owe them any justification. They can read your posts and decide  how credible you are on their own.” He continued.

He was right.

A House Undivided

Do college football fans really believe Big 12 is divided on adding FSU and Clemson?

Do you really think that the Big 12 would pass on two football giants with storied histories and national championships?

Do you really believe that Deloss Dodds is so concerned about power-mongering that he would deprive the conference of an economic windfall and the chance to put a dagger through the heart of the ACC?

Do you really think that, given the chance to add FSU, Clemson and Georgia Tech, the conference would bicker and argue over which of the three teams to take?

The answer is painfully simple -- they would take all three.

The national media was slow to the Big 12 expansion story.  They knew the Big 12 was a whisker away from collapse last year and that internal conflict almost doomed the league.  They missed out on the story because they refused to believe the Big 12 could be the hunter instead of the hunted.

But this isn’t your father’s Big 12.

This is a new conference with renewed purpose and strong leadership. The grant-of-rights does more than lock conference members together, it ensure that all institutions are treated equally – one school, one vote.

I’m not naïve enough to think that Texas and Oklahoma don’t wield tremendous influence in the conference,  but I’m certain both have to play by the rules.

Yet the grant-of-rights isn't the sole factor in the new found unity of the Big 12.  The leadership of Chuck Neinas and the  prospect of new television markets a giant pot of gold at the end of the expansion rainbow have helped to solidify the conference as much as the grant-of-rights.

Neinas convinced the Big 12 if they could only set aside their bickering they could  compete with the SEC and thrive. It was his vision of the Big 12 that lead to the bowl alliance with the SEC and his vision of  the Big 12 that has the league ready to deal the death blow to the ACC.

Neinas has no problems being the bad guy, after all it's just business. 

The Big 12 sees the SEC as a nearly perfect model for what they want to become. They see the SEC as an “ongoing business concern” whose export product happens to be great college football.

And that’s why, despite what you may hear and read, the Big 12 is in total agreement on the additions of FSU and Clemson.

If Georgia Tech continues to show interest, interest that seems to wax and wane almost daily, then the Big 12 will have no problem following the SEC model and adding all three.

Big 12 members may gripe and complain about expansion and their hesitancy to their local media but its all just posturing. Privately they're all behind the addition of any institution that adds economic value and improves their football product.

And don’t you think that a conference that has Texas, Oklahoma, WVU, TCU, Oklahoma State, FSU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech would be enough to lure Norte Dame into the fold?

I’ve said repeatedly I’m reluctant to write about Notre Dame and I’m not ready to do that just yet. Let’s just say those rumors floating about concerning Notre Dame and the Big 12 are more fact than fiction.

Musings…

The Big 12 will not expand (beyond 12) unless the teams add real value - think Georgia Tech and Notre Dame . 

VPI and UNC have reached out to the SEC. In VPI’s case it’s more than reaching out.

I have to believe that if UNC goes to the SEC then NC State joining the Big 12 becomes a real possibility.  Expansion to 16 fits within the Big 12 model if the teams would add value and teams like NC State and Maryland seem a good fit.

Obviously there was a much wider rift in the ACC between the football schools and basketball schools than anyone believed (see Andy Haggard's rant). Chuck Neinas, Oliver Luck and Kirk Schulz played that rift like virtuosos.  

*I leave Miami out of the discussion because I believe they are  no longer under consideration (by mutual consent). 

Big 12 - SEC Alliance Podcast

Cory Fravel, Greg Poole and I talk about the Big 12 and SEC alliance as well as Big 12 expansion with FSU and Clemson.

FSU & Clemson Fans Take Notice!

The ACC is a conference best known for two things: basketball and academics. It will soon be known for a third thing… the first major conference to be relegated to second-class status as a football power.

And all the remaining football-centric schools will face the same fate if they don’t find a way out.

Florida State and Clemson have a way out.

Don’t buy the argument they can’t afford the ACC buyout. Don’t buy the argument academics will keep them rooted to the ACC.

It’s a simple matter of economics. If they stay they will be relegated, right along with their conference, to irrelevancy.

If you still have doubts consider the significance of the announcement today that the SEC and Big 12 have agreed to “partner” in a bowl game.

The timing of the announcement was not by accident. It was directly aimed at FSU’s president Eric Barron to help him understand the consequences of staying in the ACC -- irrelevancy.

We know who the four major college football conferences will be now and FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland and VPI have to understand that remaining in the ACC means a date with the Big East champion in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl in balmy “New York City” in January.

Today’s announcement by the Big 12 and SEC also means that Notre Dame will not be riding in on a white horse to save the ACC.

The Irish have only two legitimate conference homes available to them now that its clear the ACC has been marginalized – the Big 12 or the Big 10.

Florida State fans need to take special note.

Florida State’s move to the Big 12 is inevitable, all my sources assure me that both Clemson and FSU are safely in the Big 12’ net, but  I can’t help but shake the feeling that the longer Eric Barron can resist pressure from his Board of Trustees the more he would like to find a reason to stay in the ACC.

The Seminole faithful need to take a lesson from Missouri’s fans let both Eric Barron and the Board of Trustees know you want to see FSU continue to be a major player in college football and compete at the highest level - let them know you support the move to the Big 12. 

Clemson’s fans would do well to take this advice too.

Otherwise you might find yourself in a conference poached by the SEC and Big 10 while the Big 12 is forced to add Big East teams to fill out their ranks.

You know what to do… now go do it. 

Big 12 Expansion Tracker

ACC Expansion Targets
Boston College
Overview:	Boston College (BC) is a private Jesuit research university located in the village of Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts with a total enrollment of 13,200.
Interest Level:	High: BC was never a fit for ACC and its athletic programs have suffered.
Strengths:	BC delivers the 7th largest TV market in the United States.
Weaknesses:	Mediocre football and basketball programs.
Trending:	Neutral – Despite the large TV market BC is only attractive as a travel partner Notre Dame.
Other Suitors:	BC's affiliation with the Jesuits may mean Notre Dame will insist on bringing them along wherever they end up.
Clemson
Overview:	Clemson is an American public, coeducational, land-grant and sea-grant research university with a total of 15,346 undergraduate and 3,743 graduate students.
Interest Level:	High: Clemson's athletic budget and its commitment to championship football make it a bad fit for the ACC.
Strengths:	BCS championship level football program and fanatic following and a huge TV market.
Weaknesses:	Close relationship with FSU may harm chances of Big 12 membership if FSU loses interest.
Trending:	> 80% - Clemson has an unofficial offer from the Big 12 and has formed a committee to look at the issues surrounding Big 12 membership. They need the increased revenue Big 12 membership offers to compete with South Carolina and surrounding SEC members.
Other Suitors:	Clemson has little hope of SEC membership as long as South Carolina blocks their application.
Florida State University
Overview:	The Florida State University is a space-grant and sea-grant public university and the flag-ship university of Florida.
Interest Level:	Very, very High: FSU's poor financial shape means it needs an influx of much needed cash into the athletic programs.
Strengths:	Historically strong football program with great following and a huge TV market.
Weaknesses:	Rumored financial problems within the athletic department.
Trending:	> 95%: FSU has an unofficial offer from the Big 12 and has formed a committee to look at the issues surrounding Big 12 membership. Like Clemson they need the increased revenue Big 12 membership offers to compete with in-state rival Florida and surrounding SEC members. Additionally FSU's athletic department is leaking money.
Other Suitors:	FSU has little hope of SEC membership as long as Florida blocks their application.
Georgia Tech
Overview:	The Georgia Institute of Technology is a public research university and a part of the University System of Georgia.
Interest Level:	High: Georgia Tech desires to upgrade their football program and get out of the shadow of Georgia.
Strengths:	Georgia Tech boasts the 8th largest TV market in the United States and has a rising football program.
Weaknesses:	GT's football program is currently not at the level of either Clemson or FSU year in and year out.
Trending:	50%: Georgia Tech is an academic elitst wannabe in love with Tabacco Road and the Ivory Tower. However if FSU leaves its almost a certainty that others will leave too and the fear of mass defections in the ACC have driven Tech to open talks with the Big 12. GT would be an attractive member because ND would like the academic boast GT would give the Big 12. Despite what you may hear and read, GT is talking to the Big 12 and that's a complete change from their position just a month ago.
Other Suitors:	GT's academic prowess makes it a target of the Big 10, but the Big 10 has recently cooled on Tech due to travel. Georgia is blocking any chance GT has for SEC membership.
Maryland
Overview:	The University of Maryland is a top-ranked public research university.
Interest Level:	High: Maryland was in talks with the Big East before WVU, Pitt, Syracuse and TCU left that conference.
Strengths:	Maryland gives the Big 12 entry into the 9th largest TV market in the United States.
Weaknesses:	Financial disarray and a football program that took a major step back in 2011. Ugly uniforms.
Trending:	< 50%. Clemson, FSU and Georgia Tech are higher on the Big 12's wish list. Maryland has spoken with the Big 12.
Other Suitors:	Possibly Big 10.

Big East Expansion Targets
Cincinnati
Overview:	The University of Cincinnati is a comprehensive public research university and has an annual enrollment of over 40,000 students, making it one of the largest universities in the U.S.
Interest Level:	High: They are in the Big East and want off the sinking ship.
Strengths:	Solid football and basketball programs.
Weaknesses:	Small stadium and very little history.
Trending:	0% - The Bearcats don't have much appeal to the Big 12's TV partners and are therefore an extremly long shot for expansion.
Other Suitors:	None
Louisville
Overview:	The University of Louisville was the first city-owned public university in the United States and one of the first universities chartered west of the Allegheny Mountains.
Interest Level:	High: They are in the Big East and want off the sinking ship.
Strengths:	Charlie Strong has the football program heading in the right direction and the basketball program is solid.
Weaknesses:	Success on the football field has historically been tied to the coach. If Strong leaves expect Louisville to take steps back.
Trending:	25% - The Cardinals, despite having great programs, don't have much appeal to the Big 12's TV partners and are therefore an extremly long shot for expansion.
Other Suitors:	ACC - The Cardinals are currently in active talks with the ACC to replace potentially departing members.
Rutgers
Overview:	Rutgers is the state university of New Jersey.
Interest Level:	High: They are in the Big East and want off the sinking ship.
Strengths:	None other than being in the largest TV market in the United States.
Weaknesses:	Poor to mediocre football program and weak basketball program.
Trending:	0%
Other Suitors:	ACC - The RU is currently in active talks with the ACC to replace potentially departing members.

Independent Expansion Targets
BYU
Overview:	Brigham Young University is a private university located in Provo, Utah. It is owned and operated by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church), and is the United States' largest religious university and third-largest private university.[6][7] Approximately 98% of the university's 34,000 students are members of the LDS Church, and one-third of its American students come from within the state of Utah.
Interest Level:	High
Strengths:	Known football brand. Large national TV following.
Weaknesses:	Small home TV market. Religious constraints on Sunday travel make scheduling difficult. TV rights belong to ESPN.
Trending:	Down: BYU refuses to play on Sunday which isn't an issue in
Other Suitors:	Big East
Notre Dame
Overview:	The University of Notre Dame du Lac is a Catholic research university.
Interest Level:	Medium
Strengths:	Well-known football program and decent basketball program. Huge national fan base.
Weaknesses:	NBC owns the rights to ND home games. ND football has been mediocre at best recently.
Trending:	Up: ND fears the disappearance of the AQ which puts them into the BCS if they finish in the top 15. Scheduling agreements like those between the Pac 12 and Big 10 will make scheduling more difficult in the future. Very real possibility of Big East basketball schools breaking away from Big East football schools would leave them without a home for their Olympic sports. Neither the ACC or Big 10 are willing to allow ND to retain the rights to their home football games. The Big 12 is willing to do so. A BCS formula which requires a conf. championship to qualify for the playoffs forces ND into a conference.
Other Suitors:	Big 10, Pac 12, ACC
Crazy Go Nuts University
Overview:	Ranked the #1 party school in the United States for the 21st year in a row by Forbes Magazine.
Interest Level:	High
Strengths:	Greatest 6-man football program in the history of the sport. Lead by legendary Coach Skunk McPhillips.
Weaknesses:	Small, exclusive enrollment. High academic and party standards. Death of star QB Homestar Runner blamed on pre-game bong party.
Trending:	Down.
Other Suitors:	Ivy League, Big East.

Contact Me:
Questions or comments? Email me at dudewv@me.com or follow me on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/!#/thedudeofwv
​

Big 12 Expansion: No News or Good News

No news is either good news or bad news depending on your perspective.

No news coming out of the ACC meetings is bad news for John Swofford.

It's not good news that no-one is saying a word in the wake of the recent ACC conference meeting.

The tight lips speak volumes about the reports of FSU and Clemson pondering a move to the Big 12.  

Swofford refuses to discuss “hypothetical” reports and instead waxes into discussions of Pittsburgh and Syracuse joining the ACC a year early and deflects questions with rhetoric about the basketball tournament.

It can't be a good sign for the ACC that FSU’s athletic director, Randy Spetman, literally sprinted away from reporters to avoid discussing the situation.

To the Big 12 the silence is golden. The wheels of realignment turn and the process begins to move from the theoretical to the legal minutia of withdrawing from the ACC and applying to the Big 12.

Yet privately there are some who are talking and the story they tell of the ACC meetings is nothing but bad news for the conference.

An Offer to allow bowl teams to exempt 50% of  bowl revenues was rejected and the other monetary concessions floated about didn’t have enough impact on the bottom line to make Florida State pause.

The only thing that can save the ACC football is Notre Dame.

Swofford’s endorsement of a BCS playoff plan that would require participants to be conference champions would force Notre Dame out of the ranks of the independents.

The only problem with Swofford’s last ditch effort to hold his conference together is that Notre Dame is unlikely to join a conference that packages tier 3 television rights and throws the proceeds in the profit-sharing pot unless that conference contains Ohio State, Michigan and the rest of the Big 10.

(I continue to hear whispers of ND and the Big 12 but while I'm sure the Big 12 is actively courting ND, I just don't see the Big 10 sitting by without making a play.)

Others tell me the ACC has opened discussion with several Big East teams. Louisville, UCONN, Rutgers and South Florida are all potential replacements if mass defections rock the ACC.

Louisville, UCONN and Rutgers make sense for various reasons. South Florida seems a reach since the academic reputation of the school doesn’t seem to fit the ACC profile.

Yet South Florida is considered by many to be a sleeping football giant and keeps the ACC with two schools in the middle of what may be the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country.

Whatever happens its clear the ACC is forming contingency plans to survive after the pending  defections.

Notes:

The ACC has begun to rattle its legal sabers at the Big 12 after Derrick Brooks disclosed The Big 12 approached FSU and discussions have occurred (and are ongoing). 

The Big 12 is eager to avoid claims of tortious interference from the ACC despite believing the claim would have no actual basis, but don’t be surprised if information dries up until after the NCAA presidents vote on the exact BCS playoff  plan.

FSU’s president Eric Barron is still reluctant to withdraw from the ACC but the consensus, at least among my sources, is that the move is inevitable.

FSU fans who support the move might want to consider making their opinion known just like the Missouri faithful gave Brady Deaton the push he needed to move the Tigers to the SEC.

Virginia Tech is actively talking with the SEC despite the protestations of Frank Beamer. 

Podcast with Allen Kenney

Allen Kenney and I discussed all things Big 12 expansion last night including FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech and how the Big 12 moved from being on the brink of extinction to poaching the ACC.

• Listen to the conversation

So It’s A Done Deal?

Yesterday I made a mistake. I wrote that Clemson was a “done deal” to the Big 12 and although it may be a matter of semantics my friend at WVU took issue with my choice of words.

“It is not a done deal,” he said. “An agreement in principal is not a done deal.”

“Until the contract is signed and the press conference is over it’s not a done deal” he continued.

So I asked exactly “what” it was.

Clemson and the Big 12 have exchanged financial information, projected schedules and revenue estimates.  They have reached an agreement on all substantial issues.

Clemson wants the Big 12 and the Big 12 wants Clemson, but the process must play out.

The Tigers are waiting patiently for the FSU endgame and the ACC’s reaction. They’re content to let the Seminoles be the icebreaker and blaze the way out of the beleaguered conference.

It’s expected that the Big 12  will discuss both Clemson and FSU in the next league meeting and there’s a belief that the Big 12 will invite FSU and Clemson to become the 11^th and 12^th members.

At that point the “done deal” becomes a matter of signing the paperwork and holding the press conference.

FSU’s move to the Big 12 is inevitable. They’ve made statements that ruffled feathers at Duke and UNC and made every football-centric member nervous. They’ve made their distrust of the conference known and stated their disgust with the ACC TV contract.

FSU is much closer to the mythical “done deal” than Clemson but the Tigers are willing to follow in their footprints.

Notes:

I’ll have another update later today concerning expansion to 14 or 16 and details about interactions Georgia Tech, Maryland, Pitt and other ACC schools have had with the Big 12.  I also ponder if the Big 12 would take Georgia Tech over Clemson to attract Notre Dame.

Big 12 Expansion: The Quiet And The Storm

Clemson is the quiet one.

The decision has been made and they're Big 12 bound.

No drama at Clemson. Clemson's football staff have been notified of an impending move and they're fine with it.

If you want drama look to Tallahassee.

FSU's Board of Trustees have butted heads with the president and made their desire to exit the ACC known.

Make no mistake, Florida State wants to move, but President Eric Barron has found it very difficult to pull the trigger.

He likes the ACC, he really does. He likes being in the same conference as North Carolina and Duke (for academic reasons). He is concerned how FSU's faculty would react to  move and wants them to understand that academics are a priority at  FSU.

What he doesn't like is the pitiful TV contract the ACC managed to beg from ESPN.

Both Eric Barron and the Board of Trustees understand that the ACC, going forward, puts FSU at a distinct competitive disadvantage.

If you don't believe that consider that FSU will be playing for one of four playoff spots.

FSU, and schools throughout the nation, must decide if they want to contend for one of those four playoff spots and be willing to spend the money necessary to compete.

Florida State has resources and a giant athletic department budget, but so do Alabama, LSU, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and the ramifications for FSU's continued membership in the ACC are profound.

Their peers will be receiving significantly more in television revenues each and every year. And that's why the Board of Trustees at FSU will force Barron's hand and FSU will join Clemson as new members of the Big 12.

The deal is done.

Some notes:

• The Big 12 contract maybe as much as $25 million per school and fully vested by year 3.
• The Contract has an automatic clause triggering renegotiation with the addition of a #13th member.
• ESPN and Fox have the advised Big 12 on who to add and further expansion (beyond 12) depends on value and who's available.
• If the right "value-added" teams are not available the Big 12 will not expand.
• Miami has said no. Their president plans to reduce the investment in football and worries about NCAA violations.
• Georgia Tech is now a serious candidate for 13 and talks are progressing.
• Louisville and Cincinnati are no longer under consideration.

Threat of Lawsuit Demands Silence

Remember Baylor?

Remember how the Baylor Bears threatened to take Mike Slive and the SEC to court over the pending defections of Texas A&M and Missouri from the Big 12.

Remember how the SEC waited until the Big 12 made a move by adding  TCU before officially adding Missouri?

The SEC waited because of the threat of a lawsuit.

If the SEC wanted to avoid a lawsuit don’t you think the Big 12 would want to avoid one too?

That’s why FSU officials are publically denying any talks with the Big 12 – not because the discussions haven’t taken place—they have--because the threat of a lawsuit demands silence.

Yet all you have to do is read between the lines to figure out talks have been taking place for some time.

Jimbo Fisher knows it.

Andy Haggard knows it.

The good folks at Clemson know it too.

FSU’s president and athletic director know it but can’t acknowledge it.

The Big 12 is using the same playbook.

The conference denies it and Big 12 schools deny it.

My guess is the need for silence ends soon.

As details of the new ACC contract with ESPN emerge the need to deny the pending move will diminish as the threat of a lawsuit become more ludicrous with every revelation.

Expect it to be one crazy week. 

One Last Argument

Here’s the deal…

The arguments are getting old.

The ACC apologists like Chadd Scott, whom I actually respect and enjoy his articles, can’t seem to grasp what’s really going on with their beloved ACC.

They can’t accept that the Big 12 could be an attractive option for cash-starved institutions in the ACC. 

And I can understand why. Last year the Big 12 was on the brink of collapse. We all thought that Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech were headed to the Pac 12.

It didn’t happen, and what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger right?

Now a year later and the Big 12 is solid, bound together by a grant-of-rights that will make sure everybody stays put and plays nice. They have a new commissioner, a new TV deal that will likely surprise everyone with the actual numbers, and a new found sense of cooperation.

And they’re on the hunt -- hungry for new TV markets and armed with the shared goal of eclipsing the vaunted SEC for the title of best damn football conference in the land.

This is not last year’s Big 12.

But ACC apologists can’t shake the stereotype of a dysfunctional Big 12 held together by spit and prayers.

So it’s no surprise they’re about to get blindsided.

The first argument they use is academics. “I’ll give you three reasons why FSU would never join the Big 12 – academics, academics and academics” they argue.

I wrote yesterday about how conference affiliation doesn’t affect academics or the research money a university receives.

Today I’ll go one step further and tell you the one thing that can harm both academics and athletics – money.

Florida State University  is good example. The state of Florida hasn’t escaped the economic downturn and the support provided to state schools like FSU isn’t as generous as it once was. As a result state schools are forced to increase tuition to cover the shortfall.

Just last month Florida Governor Rick Scott, no relation to Chadd Scott I hope, voted a bill that would have granted both FSU and UF the ability to raise tuition at will. 

Does it sound like FSU is in the position to financially support an athletic department that’s losing money?

ACC apologist don’t seem to understand that endowments and state funding are intended to support the academic mission of the school. It’s possible for schools like FSU to divert funds from one account to another and use those funds to supplement their athletic department but academics suffer as a result.

FSU is in a tough spot. Faced with the prospect of a reduction in state funding and a budget deficient of $2.4 million in the athletic department they are forced to choose between academics and athletics.

I wonder how those parroting “academics, academics, academics” will react if money intended for academics programs instead goes to cover up weak leadership in the ACC?

How is the ACC responsible for the shortfall at FSU you ask?

How is it that the ACC, the conference that boasts the footprint with the greatest population density, has the worst TV contract of all the major conferences?

Consider this ACC fans... Iowa State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, WVU, Kansas and a host of other schools earn more from TV revenues than FSU, Clemson, VPI, Maryland, Miami and Georgia Tech. 

Now tell me who is responsible?

ACC apologists also forget the link to on the field performance and donations. Have a good year on the gridiron and donations are likely to increase – have a bad year and donations decline.

Let me repeat the salient fact… have a bad year and donations for academics and athletics decline and both suffer.

The link between academics and athletics at a major university is undeniable and to give only once side of the argument without stating the other is inexcusable in my opinion.

Another popular argument is that ACC schools have such large endowments that the TV money doesn’t matter.

Really?

The argument that TV money doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme doesn’t hold much water either.

North Carolina’s higher education system suffered a budget reduction of $1 billion last year that had many at UNC calling for reductions in athletic spending to cover the shortfall. As a result UNC reduced the athletic department’s budget and I’m told football took the brunt of the funding cuts.

The point is that institutions like FSU, UNC and WVU would never use endowments to support intercollegiate athletics and when outside funding (i.e. state funding) is reduced athletic departments are the first to feel the pain.

ACC apologists like to argue the fact that the gap between the ACC and Big 12 TV revenues isn’t that much.

Effectively ACC schools will receive $16 million per school for those media rights.

Early reports on the Big 12 contract have them at about $20 million but don’t be surprised if the number is in the neighborhood of $22 million when its released.

That’s a gap of between $4 and $6 million without factoring in the additional money the Big 12 will receive from a championship game.

And it doesn’t count the value added of the addition of new TV markets from expansion.

Let’s say, just for the sake of argument, that the Big 12 receives the same $2 million bump the ACC received from adding Pittsburgh and Syracuse.

Now the gap is between $6 million and $8 million.

Now tell me with a straight face that TV markets in Florida, South Carolina, Maryland or Georgia aren’t worth more than those in Pittsburgh and Syracuse.

When everything is said and done the real gap could be greater than $10 million per year – without factoring in what FSU or Clemson could get for their own T3 rights on the open market.

Travel expenses you say?

WVU estimated only an increase of $1 million for travel for all sports.

How much would that travel budget be reduced if the Big 12 had an Eastern Division?

The last argument ACC apologists use is that the ACC is a much easier path to the BCS playoffs.

Not if some type of RPI is used.

Let’s compare two teams with equal records from the ACC and Big 12. Both are conference champions and both have a 12-1 record. The Big 12 team has played a tougher schedule and has an RPI of 4. The ACC team has an RPI of 25.

Guess which one goes to the playoff?

Just like in basketball the RPI just doesn’t grade your schedule; it also takes into account the schedules of all the teams you have played.

The RPI is unforgiving -- one member who underperforms and has a bad loss can drag down every member of the conference.  And, to make it worse, a weak schedule full of cupcakes can drag down the conference.

Even ACC apologists admit that Big 12 football is superior to ACC football. So which conference do you believe will have the higher RPI year in and year out?

Yet the decision to leave or not will be made based on simple economics. 

FSU is in financial trouble and they’re not the only one. I’m told that both Maryland and Miami have significant funding issues and the new ACC TV contract didn’t do nearly enough to give them the financial boast they needed.

Enter the Big 12.

****

I don’t really see the point in countering all the arguments made by ACC apologists who can’t put aside their bias and take a look at what’s really happening.

A resolution will be quick. If any ACC school is going to jump it will have to be before the ACC’s August deadline for notification of intent to withdraw.

We’ll know one way or the other by the end of July,  if FSU and Clemson don’t jump by then its not happening. 

Big 12 Expansion Update

The vast majority of media pundits and traditional journalists just can’t accept an ACC team would leave for the Big 12.

They offer a litany of reasons why any move would be a bad idea.

Yet switch “Big 12” with “SEC” and they all agree a move would be a great thing.

They just can’t believe the Big 12 is in a position to poach the best football programs from the ACC.

They tell us that  neither FSU or Clemson would fit culturally in the Big 12 while ignoring the fact that Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Boston College are cultural misfits in the ACC.

They tell us that the academic reputation of the Big 12 would deter any thoughts of a move from the ACC. Yet they don’t mention that the ACC doesn’t share research money.

They talk about the U.S. News & World Report rankings, but what they don’t say is that U.S. News & World Report doesn’t use athletic affiliation as a ranking criteria.

Do they really think membership in the Big 12 would effect FSU’s academic standing as determined by U.S. News & World Report ?

You can argue about the means used by U.S. News & World Report to rank academic institutions but you can’t argue that prospective students look at the report and are impressed by a high ranking.

But you should know that conference affiliation has absolutely nothing to do with a schools academic ranking.

Would the pundits really have us believe Clemson would suffer academically by joining the Big 12?

Would Clemson’s research faculty suddenly lose the ability to write a winning proposal?

Would the funding selection committee dismiss Clemson’s request for research money because the Big 12 logo is affixed to the cover page?

The truth is that a move to the Big 12 would not affect either institution’s academic ranking or the amount of research money they receive.

The real truth is that staying in the ACC may hurt the academics at both FSU and Clemson.

If Clemson and FSU are to remain competitive and strive for a national championship they’ll need the revenue to pay to for it.

And its clear that the ACC isn’t going to give them the cash they need to compete.

So if each school remains in the ACC they’ll have to receive more and more support from the institutions.

That’s state funds intended to be spent on academics, money that should be used for faculty salaries and equipment that will be consumed by athletic departments hampered by a weak conference and poor leadership from John Swofford.

So if culture and academics are not valid arguments what is?

It’s clear the Big 12 will expand and add a championship game and when that happens the gap between ACC and Big 12 revenues will be about $5 million if not more.

Add in the additional revenue derived from selling their Tier 3 media rights and the gap only goes up.

But is money enough to force FSU, Clemson or other ACC teams out of the nest?

Money is always a good reason but to me there has to be more.

Many people I talk to believe FSU and Clemson began talks with the Big 12 to force changes on the ACC.

Changes like a new commissioner maybe?

Privately they postulate to me that FSU and Clemson may have grown tired of the conference being controlled by UNC and Duke.

Earlier this week UNC escaped sanctions from the conference by a single vote. I’m told that UNC once held a private conference meeting to vote on sanctions on Clemson when the Tigers were in similar trouble.

Obviously there’s a double-standard in the ACC. The ACC has one set of rules for UNC and Duke and another set for everybody else.

Maybe FSU and Clemson are just sick and tired of the conference being an extension of the will of two basketball schools.

What doesn’t make sense to me is how VPI, Georgia Tech, Maryland or any other school with even a passing interest in football can sit by and let the league fall apart.

And therein is the genesis of any doubts I may have.

Maybe UNC and Duke don’t care but surely those other schools do.

Why are they sitting back and watching?

Could it be that one or more of those schools have eyes on the SEC? Could it be they are powerless, for various reasons (money, politics) to curtail the stranglehold that UNC, Duke and perhaps even UVA have on the conference?

I don’t know the answer to any of those questions.  

My guess is that we’re seeing a power-play of monumental proportions going on behind the scenes in the ACC and, by all accounts, UNC and Duke aren’t giving an inch.

What I can tell you is that FSU has asked the Big 12 to help with the ACC buyout and demanded a full share of Big 12 revenues from the start.

And they want Miami to join them.

Miami’s money problems are worse than FSU’s and FSU believes that travel in the new Big 12 East would not be that much of a burden with WVU, Clemson and Miami in the division.

Add Louisville or Maryland in there and travel is no longer an issue.

The Seminoles just wants to stay in their own time zone as much as possible.

The Big 12 was reluctant to discuss Miami because of the recent violations but they will do whatever FSU wants to get them into the conference.

And FSU really likes the spirit of cooperation they are getting from the Big 12.