Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Big 12 Set to Expand in 2014
Anonymous sources at WVU and the Big 12 conference have confirmed that the Big 12 plans to expand from 10 to 12 institutions to coincide with the playoff system going into effect in 2014.
Big 12 officials notified several potential candidates via backchannels who had expressed interest earlier in the summer. Those notified include FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland and Miami form the ACC and Louisville from the Big East.
According to sources the Big 12 was able to overcome internal resistance to expansion because the lack of a conference championship game was beginning to bog down the finalization of the agreement between the Big 12 and SEC to meet in a new "Champions Bowl" starting after the 2014 season.
Several Big 12 members had opposed expansion because of questions about divisional alignment, increased travel costs, and scheduling.
Others opposed expansion because they perceived they would have an easier path to the playoffs without having to play in a conference championship game.
The SEC saw it the same way. The lack of a Big 12 conference championship game became a sticking point in the contract because the SEC understood it gave the Big 12 an unfair competitive advantage.
Whatever objections Big 12 members had to expansion were dropped once it was clear a conference championship game was unavoidable.
While there have been no official talks between Florida State University and the Big 12, both have expressed strong mutual interest and it is understood that FSU now has an open invitation to become the 11th member of the Big 12 conference.
Florida State's decision to leave the ACC for the Big 12 will be based on a thorough review of the financial projections provided by the Big 12 detailing estimated revenues from the TV contract, estimates of earnings from a conference championship game, estimates of revenues from the Champions Bowl, and their own internal assessment as to their earnings potential in the Big 12 versus the ACC.
FSU's valuation process will closely examine many factors including attendance, match-ups offered by potential Big 12 schedules, and any increase in T3 media rights FSU would receive and potential revenues from playoff profit sharing.
It is important to note that FSU and the Big 12 have not had official discussions. Yet I'm told that the money gap between the ACC and the Big 12 is large enough that FSU would leave the ACC for the Big 12 and begin conference play in 2014.
The question remains who is #12? There has been intense debate within the Big 12 about who offers the most value at #12 with Notre Dame being the preferred candidate of Texas and new commissioner Bob Bowlsby. However Notre Dame has expressed its desire to remain independent to both the Big 12 and ACC.
With Notre Dame out of the picture the best bets are Clemson, Georgia Tech and Maryland. Louisville continues to have their supporters in the conference but is a long-shot. Georgia Tech has expressed interest but is thought to be more open to a potential offer from the Big 10.
Keep in mind while it appears all internal barriers to expansion have been overcome there is no timetable for an announcement and there are still many hurdles yet to clear, and FSU and the Big 12 see no need to rush the process.
The Big 12's next step is to finalize it's television agreement with ESPN/Fox and secure the deal with the SEC for the new Champions Bowl.
Once the the TV contract is finalized and the RFP has been issued for the Champions Bowl it is very likely the Big 12 will begin official talks with those schools expressing interest in Big 12 membership including FSU.
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I hope the Big 12 go 14
ReplyDeleteFSU + travel partner (Clemson?)
a travel partner for WVU (Maryland?)
and someone for Iowa State.
Dude,
ReplyDeleteAny update on SEC expansion? Are they waiting for the BIG12 to pull the trigger first, or will they go ahead just to get over that horrible 14 team scheduling headache?
I would say, yes. Because it makes the SEC look like they are doing what everyone else is doing and not pulling the punch first. I mean, it is a smart move. Everyone hates the Big 10 for pulling the punch first in the last round, yet the SEC was glad they did.
DeleteI continue to say, and still fully believe that had the ACC accepted WVU (and either Pitt/Louisville) as members #13 & #14, that the ACC would have positioned themsleves as a more stable football conference (and basketball for that matter).
ReplyDeleteWhile the initial monetary advantages to the ACC gaining those media markets (WV & KY) may not have increased their TV deal (anymore than it currently is w/Cuse & Pitt) ... it would have likely left the big 12 searching for a 10th member west of the Miss. and out of the southeast footprint.
Imagine this happened, is it possible that the SEC would have instead viewed the ACC a higher profile (and more stable) power conference to partner with and signed a bowl contract w/them instead? I think it's quite possible (at least in my uneducated opinion).
Swofford threw all of the ACC's cards on the table, he's gone "all in" for ND ... the additions of Cuse/Pitt were not just done for their "markets" ... but to provide geographical partners for ND (as well as maintaining former Big East basketball rivalries).
I believe the Dude has been spot on, the ACC will be left holding the bag, because there is no way I can see ND turning down an invite to the Big 10. ND is not just holding out for their own independence, but they are also holding out for when the 4 power conferences are FORCED to expand to 16.
Everyone knows its coming, and despite the bad feelings between the Big 10 and ND of past, the bottom line is $$$$ overcomes all past issues. Not only is ND a better fit geographically w/the Big 10, but their rivalries with Mich, MSU, Purdue, etc. are much higher value games.
Why would ND settle for the ACC (albeit it would re-open negotiations and likely bring a bigger TV deal to the ACC), when the Big 10 or Big 12's current TV deals are already exponentially more?
What's in it for ND t join the ACC? yeah ... FSU and Miami would be good rivalries games, and BC/Pitt/Cuse would be like teaming up with old buddies from the Big East. But lets just all remember that football is driving the train, money talks and access to the playoffs supersede any type of "academic fit" or an "easier path to the playoffs" now that we know conference champions will carry limited weight w/the selection committee.
Surely if FSU leaves the ACC, it devalues the conference of its biggest football brand ... and why would ND want to be in the ACC w/out FSU?
All the media folks that talk about old conference mates (big east), academic alignment, etc. in regards to ND being a good fit for the ACC are still missing a couple things. The ACC has the 5th rated TV deal and the ACC's Orange Bowl contract is dwarfed by the Rose/Champions bowl contracts.
The Big 12 will be fine w/out ND ... I think a lot of this talk is partly to keep ND distracted from the ACC.
I would literary shit myself if ND joined the ACC. I'd give it a 1% chance of happening.
I am interested to see how the selection committee is chosen and the guidelines for choosing the 4 playoff teams. If I had to guess, Id say that Swofford's last stand will be fighting for conference champions to be a major factor in the selection process. It's now or never time, because it is readily apparent that FSU is half-way out the door. All you have to do is look at all of the comments made by Jimbo Fischer at the ACC media days in regards to the 9 game schedule, bowl revenue and the fact that the schools on Tobacco road are still running the show and making decisions based on an outdated notion the the ACC tournament is the "Grand-Daddy" of college sports.
It still boggles my mind that the ACC leaders had to be presented to in the year 2012, to understand that football TV revenue had quadrupled that of the NCAA Basketball tourney. Yep, they've had their heads in the sand and all the decision that have been made in the past 5 years have not been in favor of FSU (or any of the football first ACC schools).
Not true. The Big 12 cannot kill the ACC because there's no way the Pac-12 can get to 16 as long as the Big 12 exists, and that means there is no reason to get to 16.
DeleteFace the facts, the four power conference idea will be five. The only way we're getting to four power conferences is if the Pac-12 takes Texas and Oklahoma to gut the Big 12. But as long as there is a Big 12, there must also be an ACC.
interesting perspective, was actually thinking about that earlier (who would the Pac take) ... can't say i disagree with you there.
DeleteAndy is probably right.
ReplyDeleteAcademic snobbery and indecisiveness cost the ACC big time in this wave of realignment. WVU & L'Ville would've been much better additions that Pitt & 'Cuse.
As a Big 12 guy, I'd rank my preferences as such (assuming ND is a no chance and Va Tech is SEC bound)
1. FSU
2. Clemson
3. Louisville
4. Ga Tech
5. Maryland
6. Miami (I hate The U. Believe their administration will de-emphasize football once latest sanctions come down)
as a Tiger alum it would pain me to lose past rivalries (even if those teams aren't hig-profile). And partly because I live in VA, so I am able to make road trips to any MD/VA/NC/SC games.
DeleteThat being said, i want to be in a conference that places a higher value on football. And being that FSU/CU/GT/Miami are stuck in SEC territory, provided the financial gains are there in the Big 12, it would be stupid not to accept an invite from them. The most important thing (in my mind) is that we are able to keep up financially with our SEC rivals.
JB I feel ya on Miami, but its only a matter of time before they are back in the bigger picture. Texas vs FSU and Miami vs. OK sure sounds promising to me!
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The sources spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are fictional.
ReplyDeleteWhy does anyone believe a word of this? First he said it was sure to happen in time for next season. Now he's pushed it back to 2014. How long will it take for people to realize this guy is making stuff up?
SEC has no power to demand anything on the play off system. Any changes would have to go through the BCS Presidential Oversight Committee.
ReplyDeleteRumor busted
Dude, now that ACC is talking about raising the exit fee to $50M, do you think FSU/Clemson will leave ACC before the $50M takes effect?
ReplyDeleteThe $50 million has already taken effect. Before you wrote that sentence, the $50 million had taken effect.
DeleteIt's too late. Florida State and Clemson are going nowhere. Today, I get to say, "I told you so."
I agree. Ain't going anywhere now. The next move for them will be to get Notre Dame to play football in the ACC one day. They are already dropping Michigan after 2014. If Notre Dame gets the ACC to go to an 8-game conference slate, down from the planned 9-game slate when Pitt and Syracuse join, then Notre Dame can keep 4 non-conference games. USC, Stanford, Navy and one more.
DeleteThe ND move to the ACC was huge but not unexpected. The $50M exit fee guarantees that no ACC team will leave. They cannot pay that fee and not have their constituents raise holy moly over that kind of money for sports, in this economy. Now the Big 12 is free to grab Louisville, Cincy, or BYU to get to 12. L'ville and Cincy make the most sense, and gives them a big upgrade in hoops besides. BYU still has the no-Sunday-sports rule. No need to go there when two easy gets are available.
ReplyDelete"The $50M exit fee guarantees that no ACC team will leave."
DeleteWhoops!