Line of Demarcation

Last week FSU gave a classic non-denial. They used rhetoric to say much about nothing.

Nothing was said, but it was an important nothing. 

They did not pledge allegiance to the ACC.

They did not back away from the Big 12.

They said all the right things to remain non-committed and open to available opportunities.

Somehow FSU’s positioning was interpreted as backing away from the Big 12 – that interpretation is wrong, but I can understand why so many understood it that way.

Expectations blossomed in the days leading up to the Board of Trustees meeting with rumors of an impending announcement by the Seminoles confirming their interest in the Big 12 – that didn’t happen. It couldn’t happen because the conference expansion line of demarcation hadn’t been crossed.

A line of demarcation is a boundary – a line that is often used to separates temporary geopolitical borders – like the boundary between the Big 12 and ACC.

If you think of an invitation to join the Big 12 as that imaginary line of demarcation its easy to understand why FSU choose to play coy.

FSU would be foolish to make any comment officially declaring their love of the Big 12(‘s money).  They do not have an offer to join the Big 12.

They will have that offer soon -- maybe as soon as July 1^st when WVU and TCU become voting members in the Big 12 and Bob Bowlsby is officially in office—maybe even sooner; think after the June 20^th BCS meeting.

And when that offer is made FSU will accept and  bring  Clemson with them to the Big 12.

FSU is telling some that a move for 2013 is unlikely. They are telling the media a move in 2014 is more realistic.

Privately FSU is telling the Big 12 they will have everything in order to notify the ACC of their departure by the August 15^th deadline.

FSU assured Big 12 members the move was still on track over the weekend. 

Despite the obvious signals the doubt of the pending move lingers, especially among those with allegiance to the ACC.

Their doubt comes from FSU’s vanishing budget deficit and the rhetorical comments made by FSU at the end of last week.

They forget this has never been about FSU’s small budget deficient or how the ACC found some extra BCS money to balance the Seminole  spreadsheet.

This is about the college football arm’s race. This is about FSU being able to at least stay in the neighborhood with SEC teams who have the means to outspend them in everything from facilities to coaching salaries.

This is about Jimbo Fisher having $500,000 a year to spend on recruiting and money to retain his staff.

This is about the ACC’s champion being forced to play the 3^rd of 4^th finisher in one of the 4 power conferences in the Orange Bowl or perhaps even partnering with the Big East or Conference USA.

This is about the new ACC contract that takes 9 years to reach the $17 million payout promised.

This is about the future of FSU football.

Miscellany

Swofford is working hard to save the conference and extract more money from ESPN. The only way Swofford can reopen the talks is to expand and the only team on the market that adds the value the ACC needs is Notre Dame. Rumors of what Swofford is offering Notre Dame would tear the conference apart.

Why hasn’t the Big 12 extended an invitation to FSU and Clemson? Conflicting information from equally credible sources muddy the waters on this one. Texas holding out hope for Notre Dame is plausible especially with the BCS playoff format potentially forcing ND into a conference, but if the SEC and Big 12 get their way Notre Dame will have a way into the playoff without conference affiliation. Equally plausible is the notion that the Big 12 is waiting on Bowlsby taking office and for West Virginia and TCU to become voting members.

What doesn’t make sense is that FSU isn’t ready with the paperwork. FSU commissioned a study on travel costs for Big 12 membership  and if they have went that far they have their paperwork in order.

Did anyone notice Eric Barron’s “talking points” listed Big 12 revenue as $22 million? Where did you hear that before? What Barron didn’t tell the FSU BoT’s (but they know) is that the ACC contract pays only $13 million in 2012 and goes up $500K each year until it hits $17 million in 2021.