Thursday, May 31, 2012

What did you expect?


Imagine the scene: Chuck Neinas  walks up the podium and boldly declares “With the 11th and 12th picks in the college football expansion draft the Big 12 conference selects Florida State and Clemson universities.”

The Twitterverse would have exploded.

Instead the Big 12 threw a big wet blanket on expansion.

The Big 12 is happy with 10.

The Big 12 hasn’t contacted either FSU or Clemson.

Neinas denied it all.

Before you hit the panic button think back to last year when SEC commissioner Mike Slive sated the SEC was happy with 12.

The SEC was so happy with 12 that they added Texas A&M.

Slive then went on record saying the SEC was happy with 13.

Somebody in Birmingham must have suffered from triskaidekaphobia because the SEC promptly added Missouri.

Get the picture?

We should have all learned by now when a conference says it’s happy with x number of members that expansion is just around the corner.

And expansion is just around the corner for the Big 12 with the addition of FSU and Clemson.

FSU and Clemson are still on track, but nothing will happen until Bob Bowlsby takes office and the BCS vote is finalized.

It’s that BCS vote that will determine if the Big 12 expands to 12 or  14.

If Notre Dame is forced into a conference by the new BCS deal then it’s a solid bet that the Big 12 will be their new home.

And if you doubt expansion is still on track consider what Bowlsby said yesterday to Dennis Dodd: “The Big 12 certainly doesn't want to make the same mistake three times, admiring that national landscape while the world passes it by.”

Miscellany

I suggest that everyone read Dennis Dodd’s article posted last night:


But when you do don’t overreact to the dollar numbers mentioned.  The key here is the “at least $20 million”. The number with FSU and Clemson is expected to be closer to $25 million without the money for a championship game or the new champions bowl.

In Dodd’s story he says “One industry source said that number applies whether the Big 12 invites, "Appalachian State or Florida State." but that’s not an accurate portrayal of the contract. 

FSU will be the first to move. FSU will more than likely submit a written request to be considered for Big 12 membership along with the necessary paperwork shortly after the BCS vote on June 20th.  I’m not going to put any date on it but if we haven’t heard word of FSU’s intentions by the end of June I’ll start to worry.

Contrary to popular belief withdrawing from the ACC before applying is not required by the Big 12. WVU accepted an invitation to the Big 12 and then sent notice to the Big East.

Clemson is still 1 or 2 votes shy of having their Board of Trustees approve a move to the Big 12. Once its clear that the ACC is effectively out of the picture for the BCS playoff system its expected Clemson will have all the votes it needs.

FSU’s Board of Trustee is ready to move. If they had their way FSU would have danced into the Big 12 meetings with cowboy hats singing “Home on the Range”. 

4 comments:

  1. 1. You say you think the TV $ will be close to 25 mil before the championship game...does this include tier 3?

    2. If you had to guess, what do you think the SEC does? If they went to 16, would the a 4 team conference playoff create enough money to cause other conferences to want that extra revenue too? Or would other conferences just see that more teams would make it that much tougher to reach the national championship?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. It does not. The key is is what's in the ACC contract. FSU and Clemson were mad as hell over it and somebody's not telling us why they would be so upset.

      2. The SEC covets VPI and any NC school. FSU and Clemson leaving the ACC means ACC football is dead so even the steadfast ACC loving Hokies have to to think about saving their little gobblers.

      3. I see the "bowl" games between the Big 12 - SEC and Pac 12 - Big 12 as the semifinals and so do the Big 12, Big 10, Pac 12 and SEC. The Big 12 wont be the only one of the big 4 without a conference championship game.

      Delete
    2. -But if VPI and a NC school called July 1 and said we want in, do you think the SEC would take them?

      -My other question was actually about a playoff within a conference if the SEC went to 16. I'd assume if the SEC went to 16 they'd have 4 pods and do a playoff within their own conference that would generate a bunch of extra revenue. I'd assume other conferences would be jealous of the money, but having 16 teams and a harder path to the national playoff might not be worth it if a "4 team SEC conference playoff" got approved.

      -But what about your comment that "the big 12 won't be the only one of the big 4 without a conference championship game." What do you mean by that?

      Delete
  2. VPI yes. Which NC school? UNC and NCST would have to be a yes.

    I mean the Big 12 will not be the only 1 of the big 4 not to have a conference championship game. A defacto 8 team playoff.

    ReplyDelete