The decision has been made and they're Big 12 bound.
No drama at Clemson. Clemson's football staff have been notified of an impending move and they're fine with it.
If you want drama look to Tallahassee.
FSU's Board of Trustees have butted heads with the president and made their desire to exit the ACC known.
Make no mistake, Florida State wants to move, but President Eric Barron has found it very difficult to pull the trigger.
He likes the ACC, he really does. He likes being in the same conference as North Carolina and Duke (for academic reasons). He is concerned how FSU's faculty would react to move and wants them to understand that academics are a priority at FSU.
What he doesn't like is the pitiful TV contract the ACC managed to beg from ESPN.
Both Eric Barron and the Board of Trustees understand that the ACC, going forward, puts FSU at a distinct competitive disadvantage.
If you don't believe that consider that FSU will be playing for one of four playoff spots.
FSU, and schools throughout the nation, must decide if they want to contend for one of those four playoff spots and be willing to spend the money necessary to compete.
Florida State has resources and a giant athletic department budget, but so do Alabama, LSU, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and the ramifications for FSU's continued membership in the ACC are profound.
Their peers will be receiving significantly more in television revenues each and every year. And that's why the Board of Trustees at FSU will force Barron's hand and FSU will join Clemson as new members of the Big 12.
The deal is done.
Some notes:
- The Big 12 contract maybe as much as $25 million per school and fully vested by year 3.
- The Contract has an automatic clause triggering renegotiation with the addition of a #13th member.
- ESPN and Fox have the advised Big 12 on who to add and further expansion (beyond 12) depends on value and who's available.
- If the right "value-added" teams are not available the Big 12 will not expand.
- Miami has said no. Their president plans to reduce the investment in football and worries about NCAA violations.
- Georgia Tech is now a serious candidate for 13 and talks are progressing.
- Louisville and Cincinnati are no longer under consideration.
The contract will not be worth 25 million a year with Clemson and with both Clemson and FSU. If those schools could bring in 60 million a year (12x5) together, the ACC deal would not be so shitty.
ReplyDeletemaybe the rest of league is just that bad
DeleteHere's the thing, and it's what most people forget when they think about this stuff:
DeleteTV networks aren't paying for teams, they're paying for GAMES. Yes, FSU is FSU and Clemson is Clemson, whether they're in the ACC or Big 12. You're right about that. But what the networks want is better games to put on TV. And FSU vs. Random Big 12 Opponent is more likely to be a compelling game than FSU vs. Random ACC Opponent.
Base contract will be $22 with plus up for additions.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't count championship game revenue.
The $22 is with the current lineup of 10.
Both Eric Barron and the Board of Trustees understand that the ACC, going forward, puts FSU at a distinct competitive advantage.
ReplyDeleteDid you mean dis-advantage? or advantage? Pretty big miss if you meant it as a disadvantage. While I am sure you have inside sources, it comes across as foolish to suggest that anything is done. This sounds a lot like people suggesting that WVU to the SEC was a done deal.
Dave, thanks I did leave out the dis in disadvantage. I've talked to three different people, all good sources, who have said the deal is complete. We should know by now that you can't talk and not leave, you burn too many bridges. Once it gets out that talks have occurred its just a matter of time before it happens. Time, in this case, means two months max.
ReplyDeleteWhy do you think the Texas Prez came forward to dismiss talks?
DeleteI agree that there is waaaaay to much talk (which is a pretty strong sign that something is happening - "smoke") That being said conference realignment is much more complex than even when TCU and WVU became members of the Big 12. Regardless of how things shake out, it would be very strategic by the Big 12 to go after the two most important football programs in the ACC in terms of value. This will put a deathblow to the ACC in their argument that they are a worthy football conference in the National Championship discussion. Should what you suggest be a done deal, then Virginia Tech and others will quickly act as this is becomming a real game of musical chairs. Nobody wants to be in a weak conference when the music stops. The SEC has set a very high bar, question really is when will Notre Dame start to lose its leverage and if the spots fill up will they have less options?
DeleteI think you're right when you say the musical chairs will start anew. The SEC covets VPI and any NC market team. They'll make a play and the Big 10 just might go after someone too. For the record let me say this is bad for college football even though I'm happy with WVU's new home.
Delete"The SEC covets VPI and any NC market team."
DeleteWho does the SEC want more? NC State or UNC? State has a better football program with more fan support, but perhaps not by a HUGE margin. UNC has a better b-ball program, and, while b-ball is second fiddle, it is still a source of TV revenue.
1 big caveat. UNC is under NCAA sanctions and is currently being investigated by the SBI. They have lots of NCAA baggage and some - even the SEC is blushing. Also does UNC want to leave Duke behind?
I think the easy pick is UNC but State is a compelling long term strategic selection, simply b/c the ceiling for basketball is Valvano and National Championships but more importantly it is much more a football school and has alot more fan support in NC. TV revenue and the largest "untapped" southern state is the tail that wags the dog.
If you look back at what happened last year with Mizzou, and to some extent TAMU, you'll see everyone in an official capacity denied everything until it was undeniable. We're quickly reaching that point where denials become hollow. I think we've seen the Big 12 use leaks to social media outlets to just outplay the ACC at every turn.
ReplyDeletewow ... exciting if true, but kind of sad as well ... grew up in VA as an ACC fan since birth, it's in my family. But, the thought of my Tigers not having the resources to compete against *USC, Georiga, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, etc. is tough to swallow when your school resides in the middle of SEC country and you annually schedule OOC games with them. A part of me wishes that something could be done to keep it all together and at least see how the conference does this upcoming year. I do believe that with FSU, Miami, GT and VT the ACC had potential to be in the hunt. Miami's scandal and UNC's sanctions really hurt the conference. As well as FSU and my Tigers for not taking care of business ooc and in the BCS.
ReplyDeleteWould be interesting if the ACC raised their game this year, only to see 2 of their best football schools leave, as well as VT to the SEC (which WILL happen if any of this happens). The ACC will dissolve into the Big Atlantic 2.0 and be at the bottom of the TV revenue food chain).
I wonder if Swofford knew all along we would leave? When all these rumors came out last year it was aTm, MZ, FSU and CU as all 4 going to the SEC. Well those 2 did, and USC/UGA/UF I'm sure blocked us entry.
I really just wonder what Swofford's true vision/intentions are for the identity of the ACC? I'm not sure if he placed his money on BBall being king one day, or if the rest of the league didn't get it done when we first expanded and everything was setup for yearly ACC championship games between FSU and Miami? Things didn't go as planned I guess? We just might be in Kansas now, Dorothy.
GO TIGERS!
The truth is that, if you discount the Big East, the ACC is already at the bottom of the food chain in terms of respect as a football conference. That's the problem. I have to add if the ACC had just added WVU and Louisville along with Pitt and Cuse they could have killed the Big East and likely received a better TV contract. I can't prove it and no one will say it but I think ESPN's hand is all over this.
Deletetotally agree, like i said a couple weeks ago ... WVA could have helped solidify the ACC (as well as Louisville) from a football & basketball standpoint. Those were the only additions that would have made sense at the time (geographically and culturally). Rivalries could have much easier been established from anywhere in the ACC to WVA and Kentucky. I mean, its ok for all the big shots in the top floor offices to "do things to generate $$" for their media contracts, but not ok to actually help these college towns/cities by bringing in visitors form other teams into their communities? Because that's what would have happened. A logical expansion within the same geographic footprint would not only create more exciting football (and viewership, regardless of location), but would generate $$ for the folks who live in and support those college towns. Sorry, I'm not flying to Kansas, or Syracuse for that matter for a noon kick-off.
DeleteI've been in marketing for a good while, and a lot of these Presidents and AD's don't appear to have good marketing people.
The whole academic argument is bogus, allowing in WVA would not have hurt the academic prestige (if you want to call it that) of the ACC anymore than FSU did when they joined the conference.
The ACC's acceptance of Cuse was no doubt an "apology" for flirting with them in the 2004 expansion, then leaving them at the alter. One of many of Swofford's backdoor deals along the way.
This all falls on Swofford's watch though. He had the right idea in the beginning ... FSU and Miami and VT were all national football brands. Too bad the VA state legislature couldn't saved the ACC from the BBall talking heads in Durham and Chapel Hill.
NONE of this realignment was ever about march Madness, and for Swofford take his eye off the ball and concede anything about the future prospects of this conference as taking a second chair to basketball, is his own undoing of this thing imo. Sorry for the rant.
I'd love to hear your take on which teams fall under the "value-added" category which may be available. I'd assume if FSU and Clemson do indeed do this, that those teams would include VA Tech, GA Tech, Miami, and Maryland. If Miami says no, that leaves 3 teams. If you can't get VA Tech, I'd assume the Big 12 would stand pat at 12 and hope for the Notre Dame dream in the future. In this case, they'd almost let Notre Dame choose the teams they wanted to bring with them.
ReplyDeleteClemson and FSU obviously add valuable tv markets. I'm hesitant to even mention ND but Ga Tech and ND would be possible at 13 and 14. Maryland, Pitt and Boston College would also be valuable. If the Big 12 gets a solid #13 then I can see Louisville sneaking back in if no one else is available.
DeleteWhy would the Big VII want GA Tech and MD over UNC or NC State? Both have smaller stadiums and significantly less fan support in football. DC is a pro-town, and VA Tech alumni drive that market moreso than MD. I used to live there.
ReplyDeleteI suppose Miami still draws large TV audiences? Not sure why it takes some serious nostalgia to think they are still any good. Most importantly they are a small private school with institutional disadvantages that inhibit long term success. Very basic rule of thumb, but large public schools are generally key with football.
Probably can't outbid the SEC for VA Tech and NC State.
DeleteUNC and Virginia probably has more in common with the Big 10 and I would expect them to land there.
UNC is the ACC. They are the problem. NC State is part of the UNC system and would require 2 members of UNC's board to approve any move. That's not happening -- Unless others leave. That's why the SEC stands to make out like bandits by adding VPI and NCST.
DeleteThere has also been alot of speculation that UNC and Duke are a package deal. With the NCAA problems that UNC have hung around their neck and then add DUKE as a package deal, it is more like an anchor dragging them both into oblivion. NC State is tied to the hip of UNC and it would seem to long hard uphill climb to get UNC to release them. I would hope that there are some legislative measures built into the North Carloina University system that could be utilized to get NC State released. I just wonder now if any of this really happens, which conferences are prepared to actually help any of these ACC schools with the 20 million dollar exit fee. I would think that the BUY IT NOW price for a few of these schools to leave the ACC will be the 20 million fee.
Delete"NC State is part of the UNC system and would require 2 members of UNC's board to approve any move."
DeleteNot sure I'm following here. The UNC System's Board of Governor's consist of over a dozen people. More than 2 of those people are State alumni and that would be an easy vote. Do you mean 2 votes from UNC-Chapel Hill's Board of Trustees? That just sounds odd.
Then you go on to say, "That's not happening -- Unless others leave. That's why the SEC stands to make out like bandits by adding VPI and NCST."
I interpret this to mean that you believe the SEC is waiting for the other dominoes to fall so they can specifically grab the last 2 southern states via VPI and NC State?
How do you know any of this? You can't just say "this is gonna happen", without at least *hinting* how you know that. You're just some random blog. Everybody can create a blogspot page. It doesn't give you any credibility whatsoever. If you worked for an actual media organization, I might give you the benefit of the doubt. But some guy just posting crap on his personal blogspot blog? No way.
ReplyDeleteI've said I have friends at WVU. I also have friends who have helped and I've made contacts with a few reporters who have helped. Salaried journalists can't be weatherman. They can't predict events or write about what may be whereas I can. Life is too damn short for you waste time reading blogs you don't believe are accurate. If you don't see any value then by all means take a walk with your significant other or volunteer your time for a charity. Whatever your choose to do with your time please make it a positive experience.
DeleteYou wasted all your time complaining about him, why are you here again?
DeleteSecondly, the only thing he has missed was WVU to SEC
Everything else he has said has been true.
Do have a question?
ReplyDeleteI've heard VT and UVA won't split and NCST and UNC won't split
How is the SEC going to get VT without UVA or NCST without UNC
18 bottles of beer on the wall
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ReplyDeleteIf this all happens and clemson, fsu, and possibly GT and whoever else joins tge BXII, it appears that they are favoring a east/ west conference split that will minimize travel ( which WVU will greatly benefit from) and still get the more $$ from a new tv deal. I think this is a great idea, and as a Tiger fan would love to play WVU, FSU, GT every year.
ReplyDelete