No news is either good news or bad news depending on your
perspective.
No news coming out of the ACC meetings is bad news for John
Swofford.
It's not good news that no-one is saying a word in the wake of the recent ACC
conference meeting.
The tight lips speak volumes about the reports of FSU and
Clemson pondering a move to the Big 12.
Swofford refuses to discuss “hypothetical” reports and
instead waxes into discussions of Pittsburgh and Syracuse joining the ACC a
year early and deflects questions with rhetoric about the basketball
tournament.
It can't be a good sign for the ACC that FSU’s athletic director, Randy Spetman, literally sprinted
away from reporters to avoid discussing the situation.
To the Big 12 the silence is golden. The wheels of
realignment turn and the process begins to move from the theoretical to the
legal minutia of withdrawing from the ACC and applying to the Big 12.
Yet privately there are some who are talking and the story they tell of
the ACC meetings is nothing but bad news for the conference.
An Offer to allow bowl teams to exempt 50% of bowl revenues was rejected and the
other monetary concessions floated about didn’t have enough impact on the
bottom line to make Florida State pause.
The only thing that can save the ACC football is Notre Dame.
Swofford’s endorsement of a BCS playoff plan that would require
participants to be conference champions would force Notre Dame out of the ranks
of the independents.
The only problem with Swofford’s last ditch effort to hold
his conference together is that Notre Dame is unlikely to join a conference
that packages tier 3 television rights and throws the proceeds in the
profit-sharing pot unless that conference contains Ohio State, Michigan and the rest of the Big 10.
(I continue to hear whispers of ND and the Big 12 but while I'm sure the Big 12 is actively courting ND, I just don't see the Big 10 sitting by without making a play.)
(I continue to hear whispers of ND and the Big 12 but while I'm sure the Big 12 is actively courting ND, I just don't see the Big 10 sitting by without making a play.)
Others tell me the ACC has opened discussion with several
Big East teams. Louisville, UCONN, Rutgers and South Florida are all potential
replacements if mass defections rock the ACC.
Louisville, UCONN and Rutgers make sense for various
reasons. South Florida seems a reach since the academic reputation of the
school doesn’t seem to fit the ACC profile.
Yet South Florida is considered by many to be a sleeping
football giant and keeps the ACC with two schools in the middle of what may be
the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country.
Whatever happens its clear the ACC is forming contingency
plans to survive after the pending defections.
Notes:
The ACC has begun to rattle its legal sabers at the Big 12 after
Derrick Brooks disclosed The Big 12 approached FSU and discussions have occurred (and are ongoing).
The Big 12 is eager to avoid claims of tortious interference
from the ACC despite believing the claim would have no actual basis, but don’t be surprised if information dries up until after the NCAA presidents vote on the exact BCS playoff plan.
FSU’s president Eric Barron is still reluctant to withdraw
from the ACC but the consensus, at least among my sources, is that the move is
inevitable.
FSU fans who support the move might want to consider making
their opinion known just like the Missouri faithful gave Brady Deaton the push he needed to move the Tigers to the SEC.
Virginia Tech is actively talking with the SEC despite the
protestations of Frank Beamer.
question about VT ... I recall the VA legislature got involved when the ACC first expanded in 2004, VT was admitted instead of Cuse, due to strong influence from UVA & UNC/Duke to an extent.
ReplyDeleteHow does VT break away from UVA to the SEC? Can't imagine seeing UVA not fight that move, considering all they did to get VT in the ACC. is it just a matter of paying the exit fee (and/or more concessions to the ACC)? Could there be legislature drafted and approved in a quick fashion to ensure the UVA/VT rivalry remains apart of both programs futures?
I don't see how VT could not make that move to the SEC if invited.
Hey Dude, suppose the ACC admitted WVU instead of Cuse (w/Pitt), how do you think that would have affected the TV contract w/ESPN? I mean, look at those rivalry games in big TV markets for WVU -- Pitt, MD, VT, Miami, BC, FSU (and Clemson to an extent). Imagine how exciting of a conference that could have been, natural rivalry games bring in higher viewer ratings regardless of one's relative location to that game. I think that's what everyone is missing, the actual # of TV's in a given market is only relative to the fanbase/following.
I'm happy to watch USC/Orego or Oregon/OSU on Sat nights after all the other big games have happened.
Just saying
WVU doesn't have a large DMA but does have a large national following and is one of the best known brands in the east. The quality of their football and basketball programs got them into the Big 12. UNC blackballed WVU in the ACC.
ReplyDeleteNormally I would agree with you about VPI and the SEC. They said no to the SEC last year, but if FSU and Clemson leave you can be sure more will follow. VPI would be forced to make a move or choose to accept a decline in their football program in terms of competing on a national level.
Beamer is against a move and has threatened to quit if a move is made. But how can they not move if the core of the football teams in the ACC leave? They can't.
In terms of TV I understand that tier 3 rights depend on the number of cable subscribers is all important regardless of if they watch or not. ESPN gets to charge the cable system for carrying the conference network a fee for every subscriber. That's why VPI and any NC team are so coveted by the SEC.
thanks for clarifying, guess I misunderstood that part of the equation. Excellent info.
DeleteDo you think it was only UNC that blackballed WVU? I've heard rumors before WVU was accepted to the Big 12, that VT was pretty vocal about not voting in WVU to the ACC.
I still wonder, would WVU in the ACC (w/Pitt) have brought enough to the table for ESPN to give the ACC a better TV deal? Do you think WVU could have helped stabilized the ACC? Would they have been enough, or has it always been ND or bust (as a football conference) from the time the SEC took aTm and MZ?
Thanks for all your work on this story Dude!
Money is always the prime motivating factor but certain ACC schools are just tied of what they perceive to be a UNC (and Duke) dominated conference. I think the ACC's mistake was not taking PItt, Cuse, WVU and Louisville. That would have killed the Big East and likely secured the ACC. But doing so would have shifted the balance of power in the ACC from the schools that favor basketball to those who favored football. UNC used academics as a reason to blackball WVU.
ReplyDeleteAs far as VPI goes the first trip Luck made as AD in WV was to Blacksburg. I understand that VPI supported WVU but that could have been what they told Luck. I know Clemson and FSU supported WVU and Clemson's president even mentioned talks with WVU in the Orange Bowl pre-game.
I honestly think the ACC's new TV deal was sparse because they knew FSU & Clemson were leaving. There's no other explanation to such a bad contract.